(Reuters) -With inflation in the United States running at levels not seen in four decades, market participants worry the Federal Reserve will need to be overly aggressive with rate hikes to cool price rises, which might end up tipping the economy over into a recession.
These concerns have led to a rout in U.S. equities in recent months, and prompted banks to roll out bearish forecasts. [.N]
Here are some estimates from major banks on the possibility of a recession in the United States:
Old
Bank Commentary on New year-end PT
recession price target
for S&P 500
Goldman Estimates a 30% 4,300 4,900
Sachs chance of a
recession in the
U.S. over the
next year
Barclays (LON:BARC) Plc Risks to S&P 500 4,500* 4,800
"remain firmly
stacked to the
downside" given
numerous
negative
near-term
catalysts
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Expects a mild 4,200-4,400 4,500-4,700
U.S. recession
at the end of
2022, early
2023; Cuts
year-end 2022
GDP growth
target to 1.5%
from 2.2%.
Bank of Sees 40% chance 4,500 4,600
America Corp of U.S.
recession next
year
Credit Says As low as
Suisse there is a high 3,350 in
recession risk bear-market
for the U.S. in scenario
the second half
of 2023 and for
Europe this year
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Says Fed's 75 4,900* 5,050
Chase & Co bps rate hike
increases risk
of recession
starting later
this year or in
2023
HSBC Expects a severe 4,450 4,900
Holdings PLC slowdown in
global growth
momentum
in Q2 and Q3 of
2022
UBS Group AG (SIX:UBSG) Does 4,300
not expect a 3,900*
U.S. or global
recession in
2022 or 2023,
but says risks
of a hard
landing are
rising
Deutsche CEO 4,750 5,250
Bank AG flags
considerable
recession risk
in 2023 in
Europe and U.S.
Source: Research notes from banks, *media reports