Get 40% Off
🤯 This Tech Portfolio is up 29% YTD! Join Now to Get April’s Top PicksGet The Picks – Just 99 USD

Election Day, Futures Surge on Sweep Hopes, API Due - What's up in Markets

Published 11/03/2020, 06:37 AM
Updated 11/03/2020, 06:39 AM
© Reuters

© Reuters

By Geoffrey Smith 

Investing.com -- The U.S. heads to the polls, while speculation on a Blue Sweep and big, quick stimulus package propels stock futures and oil higher. Australia cuts rates and starts quantitative easing, two days ahead of meetings at the Fed and Bank of England. And Jack Dorsey survives as Twitter CEO. Here's what you need to know in financial markets on Tuesday, November 3.

1. Election Day

The U.S. goes to the polls to elect a new president, 35 Senators and 435 Congressmen and -women in the House of Representatives.

Opinion polls still appear to indicate a “Blue Sweep” that would give the left-leaning Democratic Party control of the White House and both chambers of the legislature. However, a repeat of 2016, in which actual voting results defied similar polls, is still easily possible.

Because of the different rules applied by each state as regards the counting and processing of ballots, it is quite possible that the winner of the presidential election will not be known by Wednesday morning – not least since the incumbent has consistently ruled out conceding and has claimed that only electoral fraud can stop him winning. 

However, two key swing states of North Carolina and Florida are likely to report this evening, and their results will give a strong indication of the trend.

2. Australia shows monetary policy isn't dead

The Reserve Bank of Australia reminded world markets that central banks haven’t run out of ammunition quite yet, cutting its key rate to 0.10% from 0.25%. The RBA also announced its first-ever quantitative easing program, with an overall size of A$100 billion.  The decisions were in line with expectation.

After a wild ride, the Aussie is now pretty much where it was at the start of the year against the dollar. By 6:30 AM ET it was at $0.7122, supported by a burst of dollar weakness across the board.

The move came two days before the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England announce the results of their latest policy meetings.

3. Stock futures surge on stimulus speculation

U.S. stock markets are set to open sharply higher, supported by expectations of a ‘Blue Sweep’ of Congress that would make it easier for the incoming administration to enact a major economic stimulus package with little delay.

By 6:20 AM ET (1120 GMT), Dow 30 futures were up 394 points, or 1.5%, while S&P 500 futures were up 1.2% and Nasdaq futures were up 0.7%, again underperforming as money rotates out of growth and momentum stocks into the cyclicals that have underperformed so badly this year.

Humana (NYSE:HUM), Exelon (NASDAQ:EXC), McKesson (NYSE:MCK) and Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) all report early, while things are set to quieten down after the close. One stock likely to be in focus is PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), which cut its revenue forecast after user growth slowed in the third quarter.

4. Dorsey survives activist pressure at Twitter

Another stock likely to come under the spotlight is Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), where CEO and Founder Jack Dorsey survived pressure from activist investor Elliott Management to unseat him.

A committee appointed by the board has recommended to keep the current management in place, the company said in a filing late Monday. Elliott’s representatives supported the recommendation.

The decision comes less than a week after Twitter posted its slowest user growth in years, and on the eve of an event that is likely to lead to fresh scrutiny of its business model by the outside world.

5. Oil rebounds; API due

Oil prices finally found some support after plunging over the last week, as participants shed some of their broader risk aversion and also took comfort from hints that major oil producers are slowly preparing to abandon a scheduled production increase.

Russian oil minister Alexander Novak met with oil company representatives on Monday to discuss the matter, according to Russian news agencies, but there was little detail of the meeting’s outcome.

Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco (SE:2222) reported a profit of $11.8 billion for the third quarter, up 78% from the previous three months but still not enough to cover its dividend.

By 6:30 AM, U.S. crude futures were up 3.5% at $38.08 a barrel, while Brent futures were up 3.2% at $40.22 a barrel. The American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventories estimate is due at 4:30 PM ET.

Latest comments

when will the market not make any possible situation anywhere a reason the market is up and will go up indefinitely.... COVID. higher taxes. restrictions on fracking and oil operations. end of 12 year bull run. no more money. too much debt. credit maxed out and unpayable. global lockdowns. no jobs. at what point do humans look at the graph and and say, "ya, we've probably gone too high and this isn't easily sustainable for the immediate future, let's call it."
you think an anticipated Biden blowout is raising the markets? LOL... I think you have some wires crossed somewhere.
Wrong again. Red wave.. Trump will win by more than 300 electoral votes.
It's the Dump the Trump Rally
We are Democrats and we want Trump! No a senile Marxist puppet controlled by China.
fake
If you are so confident of a blue sweep then why are all major cities boarding up all their businesses and putting their national guard on standby?
 not sure why your comment is being down-voted. The extremists are the first to show up with guns. I'd say that is more dangerous. So is dangerously block roads and bridges causing havoc and terrorizing average daily persons
Wrong. As the Director of the FBI clearly stated. Antifa is an ideology, NOT an extremist group. I guess you're still talking up the false narrative.
LOL
Brilliant synopsis... oil futures up sharply. I guess investors expect Joe to change his mind and not eliminate fossil fuels? Seems like a smart bet.
Trump will win with the support of Indian American community
If trumps looses it will be because that his singular focus on himself was exposed by the virus. Pray for the saftey and lives of his foolish followers who attended his campaign rallies fund by the taxpayers and free media coverage.
Agree, it is media manipulation
the media is criminal. they can't be trusted at all
Media keeps trying to sway this election in a direction it is not going. Worse yet, they are making predetermination of cheating if Trump wins (rich right?). Thus, the media needs to be criminally and finacislly responsible for the grossly inaccurate reporting that will result in widespread rioting and looting.
This is a joke right ? - it is me abundantly clear after exactly 27 challenges by the Republican on voting procedure that the cheaters are on one side and one side only.
I can’t farhom how someone believes stocks would surge in anticipation of higher taxes, regulation and subsequent lower earnings.
Dellusional comes to mind
Calm , predictabily and decency
Market manipulation taking place with election as excuse. Australia cut rate and decided to print more AUD and the currency surged against every currency...it just stoplosses being touched once they have touched enough they will dump it and still use the election as excuse
A red sweep? Then yes.
Blue wave will sweep your 401k, adding more not assimilate immigrants at your cost, increase taxes. Left will controlling and censorship everything (education, media, salaries, your life), and when finally Kamala becomes president and Nancy vp, they will destroy the country that always hated.
Have you been watching too much catastrophe movie?
Man, that sounds scary, congrats on being rich though 👌🏻
Have you drinking too kool aid and watching cnn, snowflake??
Someones triggered this morning. Trump 2020
The Spin on that headline.
Futures up means Incumbent Remains In Office!
Yep that’s exactly what that means.
Read rhe headlines...sticks up because blue wave will bring big stimulus
Yeah, surge on a Red Wave...
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.