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Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week

Economy Jun 28, 2020 06:22AM ET
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By Noreen Burke 

Investing.com -- The surge in virus cases in the U.S. South and West will continue to be a major driver of risk sentiment this week. The main event on the economic calendar will be the June jobs report, due out on Thursday, a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday. Investors will be watching the employment figures along with other economic data for signs that the rebound remains in effect. There will be a host of Federal Reserve speakers along with the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting. Investors will also be monitoring simmering geopolitical tensions and appearances by Bank of England officials, who could hint at shifting monetary policy preferences. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

  1. U.S. virus cases surge

Five U.S. states, including Florida and Arizona hit record daily highs for coronavirus cases on Saturday and the number of confirmed U.S. cases of the virus rose to more than 2.5 million, a quarter of the world’s total, according to Reuters. The surge in cases has been most pronounced in a handful of Southern and Western states that were among the first to lift lockdowns.

The resurgence in cases is preventing economic activity from fully resuming, prompting investors to weigh expectations of further stimulus in the coming weeks.

One element of Congress' fiscal aid, a $600 per week supplement to unemployment insurance payments, is set to expire at the end of July.

“Our outlook for the economy is probably going to have to change" without further stimulus said Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.

  1.  June jobs report, ISM manufacturing data

Economists are forecasting that the U.S. economy will add three million jobs in June after a shock 2.5 million gain a month earlier. But the two months of gains would still pale in comparison to the approximately 22 million jobs that were lost in in March and April.

The ISM manufacturing index, out Wednesday, is expected to rebound sharply, but even if it rises back to the 50 level that separates growth from contraction the level of activity will still be down sharply from were it was at the start of the year.

Consumer confidence figures are due out on Tuesday and the weekly report on initial jobless claims will be released Thursday at the same time as the nonfarm payrolls data.

  1. Fedspeak, minutes

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are due to testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday about the economic stimulus unleashed in response to the virus.

The Fed will publish the minutes of its June rate-setting meeting on Wednesday. Before that, New York Fed President John Williams will be speaking Tuesday on a panel with the International Monetary Fund while Fed Governor Lael Brainard is due to speak about the Dodd-Frank Act at a webinar co-hosted by the Brookings Institution and the University of Michigan.

  1. Geopolitical tensions

This week could see a potential flare-up in U.S.- China tensions with Beijing due to pass new national security laws for Hong Kong.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Friday Washington was imposing visa restrictions on Chinese officials responsible for restricting freedoms in Hong Kong.

Last month, President Donald Trump responded to China's plans by saying he was initiating a process to eliminate special economic treatment that has allowed Hong Kong to remain a global financial center since its handover by Britain in 1997.

Concerns that an escalation in tensions between Washington and Beijing could jeopardize Chinese purchases under a Phase 1 trade deal Trump agreed with China in January have spooked investors already worried about a surge in coronavirus cases.

  1. Bank of England speakers in focus

Investors will be closely watching appearances by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Chief Economist Andrew Haldane this week for any indications of a shift in monetary policy guidance after a surprise decision to taper the bank’s bond buying stimulus program.

The BoE bolstered its firepower by a further 100 billion pounds -- as predicted by most economists -- but surprised financial markets by saying it expected the increase to see it through to the end of the year.

The BoE’s decision to slow the pace of its huge bond buying program was accompanied by a comment from Bailey that he’d prefer to unwind the balance sheet ahead of raising interest rates -- a break from the Carney-era guidance that this process wouldn’t occur until interest rates hit 2%.

--Reuters contributed to this report

Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week
 

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Comments (22)
Leo San
Leo San Jun 29, 2020 12:03AM ET
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Fed news coming in Tuesday and Wednesday.. fed comes on market always drop . .. market all time high or near it, and major companies already have earning! who ready to see market cycle? needs to drop for healthy pullback..
Alan Chua
Alan Chua Jun 28, 2020 10:33PM ET
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I am holding most of the bank and healthcare stocks. Currently, the value drops more than 30%, should I still hold and wait for the fortune or what strategies to follow to reduce your portfolio lose?. Please advise.
Tobias Mueller
Tobias Mueller Jun 28, 2020 10:33PM ET
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Banks never really recovered resp. Underperformed so badly. Yields keep low, so thats bad for banks, too. Reducing risk is prolly not a bad idea.
Vv Pp
Vv Pp Jun 28, 2020 7:25PM ET
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3rd world country.. unbelievable
Kaveh Sun
Kaveh Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:16PM ET
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All should WEAR MASK to reduce the spread. If all do, no shutdown is needed.
Fangbing Wu
Fangbing Wu Jun 28, 2020 11:51AM ET
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More stimulus coming to keep the market up.
Plopseven Schwartz
Plopseven Schwartz Jun 28, 2020 11:51AM ET
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Nah, fam.
Andy pr
Andy pr Jun 28, 2020 11:47AM ET
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Markets would be choppy among good and not so good news. Covid cases rising but at the same more fiscal & monetary stimulus being discussed. It could dip again to 2940ish level to fip back at Fed news.....btw Put/Call ratio is 1.25 ish showing too much pessimism, right where mkt turns up in few days time....
Notvery Goodathis
Peteymcletey Jun 28, 2020 11:38AM ET
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I'm still not a fan of how they keep blindly associating recent spikes to slowly lifting lockdowns. Georgia was one of the first to start opening up, but only spiked after protests from 1st week of June (2-3 week lag).Florida, CA, AZ are obvious - only states where you can do anything. So TONS of tourists flooding in. I know at least a dozen people from NY/MA/RI who went to Florida and were partying with no masks (beach bars). CA friends never seemed to care (52 week unemployment maybe?).
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Rogers Blanco
Rogers Blanco Jun 28, 2020 11:38AM ET
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I was looking at the R values since April and SC's R values were the 1st to go above 1.4 then Florida gradually got up to it, while georgia wasnt even close to us. We live in Hilton head, sc and the area onl yr has 35,000 residents which most are vulnerable to covid19 and tourist season started in full swing memorial weekend, although it's been busy since april here, but no one is making a single effort to curb covid19 here, instead are behaving like south Carolina is protected from it. The tourists keep flocking here and ever since that happened the cases started to surge. The hospitals are at almost full capacity in florida and sc. Tons and I mean TONS of businesses have been impacted by this because tons of staff in numerous restaurants, golf clubs, hotels and bars tested positive forcing these businesses to temporarily close and many businesses to permanently close like bonefish grill and carrabba's. The hospitality industry is hurting badly.
Kaveh Sun
Kaveh Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:38AM ET
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Mike Lee wearing mask is the solution for now. It stops the spread. It works better than shutdown. Few protestors wore mask in many area. However the media keeps blaming open up is the reason.
Rogers Blanco
Rogers Blanco Jun 28, 2020 11:38AM ET
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no one is wearing masks in South Carolina. We've offered seniors n95 masks and they chuckle, then reject them.
Notvery Goodathis
Peteymcletey Jun 28, 2020 11:38AM ET
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didn't everything say protestors were coming from out of state mostly? in most areas across the country too? as in protests were in bigger cities, but mostly not by people from there
Notvery Goodathis
Peteymcletey Jun 28, 2020 11:38AM ET
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Perhaps Sweden does have the best approach. They realized this isn't going to just go away after 2-3 months of lockdowns. France is also seemingly hiding their numbers. Their testing is at about 20% of the rest of the EU (being generous). And they can travel everywhere.
Sophia FxLeaders
Sophia FxLeaders Jun 28, 2020 11:33AM ET
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The full consequence of COVID-19 is unknown but its influence on the FX market to date has been vital. Looking ahead, dramatic shifts in currency value are absolutely here to stay as global markets are moving on sentiment rather than measured evaluation.  If the response from central banks and national governments is sufficient to prop up economies over the coming months then the wild swings of the last few days will likely be changed. But if holes start to appear and the response is insufficient to hold markets together then anticipate to see more downward pressure.
New Jazenevd
New Jazenevd Jun 28, 2020 11:25AM ET
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Once $600/week stimulus unemployment pay expires end of July, US employment will start recovery. Hope, Congressional Reps will stand firm and disallow Dems to continue this payment and, accordingly, high unemployment indefinitely.
Mohammad El Hallak
Mohammad El Hallak Jun 28, 2020 11:02AM ET
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Will the stocks market rise tomorrow ?
Wong LeoGoobee
Wong LeoGoobee Jun 28, 2020 11:02AM ET
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Probably wont
Mario Rodriguez
Mario Rodriguez Jun 28, 2020 11:02AM ET
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Thats what I thought last monday and they did
Ramon Gonzalez
Ramon Gonzalez Jun 28, 2020 11:02AM ET
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I hope so i have some long positions
Amir Baroud
Amir Baroud Jun 28, 2020 11:02AM ET
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Read bro.
Ta Da
TDalt Jun 28, 2020 11:02AM ET
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Yes
 
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