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Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week

EconomyMar 29, 2020 06:54AM ET
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© Reuters.

By Noreen Burke 

Investing.com - The negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. labor market will begin to become more apparent this week. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for March is expected to show a large drop amid the lockdown in many cities and states that has shuttered businesses and sparked a massive wave of staff layoffs. Thursday’s jobless claims report will also be in focus after last weeks jump to historic highs. President Donald Trump’s response will be closely watched for any indications of how much he is leaning towards easing restrictions, despite the ongoing healthcare crisis. Meanwhile, Chinese PMI data may offer indications that the world’s second- largest economy is starting to recover after slumping since the start of the year and the first quarter of 2020 is drawing to a close. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

  1. U.S. labor market impact

Due to the timing of the survey period for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March it likely preceded the worst of the impact on the labor market. Economists still expect Friday's figures to show a loss of 100,000 jobs.

A significant overshoot of that and the unprecedented $2 trillion stimulus package approved by Congress could suddenly start to look inadequate. The government's package includes a $500 billion fund to help hard-hit industries and a comparable amount to fund direct payments of up to $3,000 apiece to U.S. families.

Ahead of that, Thursday’s jobless claims report is expected to show another massive wave of new claims for unemployment benefits in the week to March 28, after they surged to a record 3.28 million in the preceding week.

  1. Trump walks back remarks about faster reopening

Investors will be closely following developments in the White House after President Trump appeared to back off from remarks he made last week about getting the economy going again by Easter Sunday.

Trump said Saturday he was unsure about whether the United States will reopen for business by April 12th following shutdowns in major cities across the country.

Some investors believe an earlier return to work would boost the U.S. economy, but health experts say a haphazard patchwork of restrictions across states could make the coronavirus impact worse. Cases in the U.S. soared past 115,000 on Saturday, the highest number in the world.

Trump, who is concerned about the economic repercussions of an extended shutdown of nonessential business has accused his Democratic critics of wanting to keep the economy in paralysis to improve their chances of ousting him in the Nov. 3 election.

  1. Chinese PMI data

Already Chinese factories' Jan-Feb profits have hit their lowest in a decade and Tuesday’s PMI survey data for March will very likely reveal more pain. And just like everywhere else, job losses are mounting up, regardless of how many cheap loans are being offered to businesses.

While China seems to have contained the coronavirus, allowing work and travel to resume the major economic damage may still be to come. With infections climbing exponentially in the U.S., Europe and the other markets China exports to, and with supply chains in disarray, China being hit by a supply-demand shock.

  1. Eurozone data

There is a lot of economic data coming out of the Eurozone this week and Monday’s March economic sentiment data will offer insights into how businesses and consumers assess the situation, even though is predated new restrictive measures put in place since the survey was conducted.

The slump in oil prices means that March’s inflation will have tumbled, while reports on retail sales and unemployment are for February, so will still not show the full magnitude of the economic fallout from measures put in place to try to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

  1. Q1 wraps up

Few will regret the end of the first quarter of the year. Fears of a U.S.-Iran war gave way to the coronavirus pandemic which JPMorgan analysts have estimated will have pushed the world economy into a 12% contraction in the three months to March. The quarter saw the most brutal global equity collapse since the Great Depression, exacerbated by a 60% oil price slump.

The start of Q2 may not bring much relief, with coronavirus still spreading rapidly and keeping large parts of the global economy shuttered. Banks have rushed to slash Q2 forecasts too, so expect more turbulence on financial markets.

But markets have rebounded and may actually end Q1 on a high after governments pledged a $5 trillion stimulus effort and major central banks slashed rates and restarted asset purchases. Investors will be watching to see if infection rates are peaking, but there is still no certainty about when the coronavirus will be got under control.

--Reuters contributed to this report

Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week
 

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Comments (9)
franklin neversoy
franklin neversoy Mar 29, 2020 3:13PM ET
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Ugh
jemin An
jemin An Mar 29, 2020 1:53PM ET
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German finance minister passed away by suicide several hours ago. Maybe german bank is bankrupted, many US bank are not safe at all.
jemin An
jemin An Mar 29, 2020 1:53PM ET
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https://m.dw.com/en/german-state-finance-minister-thomas-schäfer-found-dead/a-52948976
jemin An
jemin An Mar 29, 2020 1:53PM ET
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BOA, JP Morgan, Citi, We have to watch very very closely those 3 banks in US.
jemin An
jemin An Mar 29, 2020 1:53PM ET
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The body of a man identified as Thomas Schäfer, the finance minister of the German state of Hesse, was found on a high-speed train line in the town of Hochheim between Frankfurt and Mainz, police confirmed Saturday.
abhishek das
abhishek das Mar 29, 2020 11:47AM ET
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i think the peak of the pandemic will be witnessed on the 31st day of March 2020(+/-1day).
Andy Morris
Andy Morris Mar 29, 2020 11:47AM ET
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Not a chance.  May 31 is probably a better guess, but with a little luck (and lots of distancing) maybe late April.  The period following the peak will require as much caution and crowd avoidance, and could last weeks, unless we want to go thru this all over again.
Shpend Salihu
Shpend Salihu Mar 29, 2020 11:22AM ET
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Listen to specialist and you will a have pretty realistic view. Likely this will last for several months. Countries in Europe even under quarantine are not able to stop this message from mother Earth, do you seriously believe that it will end in April? On top this is going global, so for sure it will take more than 3 months...
Chris Martin
Chris Martin Mar 29, 2020 11:00AM ET
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Big impact to market wil include what N.P. does to push for Green New Deal byproducts in a new stimulus packet. These opportunist Democrats that use this crisis to disparage thr Prez., act disingenuous to the face of the people allowing time to pass while arguing for freebies is despicable as more grow ill due to time wasted arguing Green, not approving what was needed for people.
John Mars
John Mars Mar 29, 2020 10:47AM ET
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5 things to watch lol... We all know there is one thing to watch. If the case and death count go down...
Andrew Hoadley
Andrew Hoadley Mar 29, 2020 10:38AM ET
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I'm thinking it'll probably be a red week with e everything going on but we'll get a small glimpse of the week ahead once the futures market opens today
Ciprian Preepleac
Ciprian Preepleac Mar 29, 2020 10:23AM ET
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Nothing is for sure
Heijgilif Sfteef
Heijgilif Sfteef Mar 29, 2020 7:31AM ET
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but there is still no certainty about when the coronavirus will be got under control.
Jonathan Wang
Jonathan Wang Mar 29, 2020 7:31AM ET
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It will be contained after cities quanrantine.
Forex Tigers
Forex Tigers Mar 29, 2020 7:31AM ET
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so what we expect?
Atanas Petkov
Atanas Petkov Mar 29, 2020 7:31AM ET
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What I have noticed is that the DJ reacts up to positive news and down to negative news. Which is logical of course but I was trading just when there was news coming up and my account is growing for now regardless of the direction of the market. I hope that helps.
Heijgilif Sfteef
Heijgilif Sfteef Mar 29, 2020 7:31AM ET
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ive just copy and paste the last line of the article
 
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