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Euro' gains fizzle as Russia-Ukraine conflict fears intensify

Published 02/20/2022, 08:44 PM
Updated 02/21/2022, 09:56 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A picture illustration of U.S. dollar, Swiss Franc, British pound and Euro bank notes, taken in Warsaw January 26, 2011. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

By Julien Ponthus

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro's gains fizzled and the dollar received a safe-haven boost on Monday after the Kremlin said there were no concrete plans for a summit over Ukraine between the Russian and U.S. presidents.

Weekend reports that Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden had agreed in principle to discuss finding a possible path out of Europe's biggest military crisis in decades had prompted investors to cautiously buy stocks and the euro and pull capital away from safe-haven shelters such as the yen and government debt.

But the latest news, along with reports of border skirmishes, prompted investors to take shelter.

"Tensions are running high," said Kenneth Broux, an FX strategist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY).

Against the safe-haven Swiss franc, the euro currency sank half a percent to a three-week low at 1.0384 francs per euro.

Versus the greenback the euro, which was up 0.6% at one stage during early London trading, slowly abandoned those gains and was up a meagre 0.1% at $1.1336.

Russia's FSB security service said a shell fired from Ukrainian territory had destroyed a border guard post, while Ukrainian authorities warned that hackers were preparing to launch major attacks on government agencies, banks and the defence sector on Tuesday.

"The optimism has dissipated," said Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC, pointing to fresh news headlines suggesting that Britain believes Russia may still be planning an invasion.

"Caution is the order of the day," he said.

During the same time, the dollar index recovered most of its losses and was down only 0.13% against major rival currencies.

Echoing the mood swing over the prospects of a de-escalation, European stock markets turned sharply negative after opening in positive territory, with a gauge of European stock market volatility at its highest level since November 2020.

By contrast, safe-have currencies that have benefited from the tensions spurred by Russia's military build-up on Ukraine's borders were back in favour. The Swiss franc added 0.54% at $0.9164 versus a broadly sturdy U.S. dollar.

Bitcoin, which was on a recovery path from a mild bruising over the weekend, struggled to stay in positive territory, holding around $38,500 levels.

While the outcome of negotiations to find a peaceful way out of the Ukrainian crisis remains uncertain, more volatility is expected ahead. A gauge of currency market volatility held near its highest levels since February 2021.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A picture illustration of U.S. dollar, Swiss Franc, British pound and Euro bank notes, taken in Warsaw January 26, 2011. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

Currency markets participants are also focused on central bank policy, seeking clues on the speed and size of interest rate hikes in major markets.

Investors will be closely watching remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers this week for any hint that an expected rate hike at the Fed's March meeting could veer more towards to 50 basis points instead of the current consensus for a 25 basis point increase.

Latest comments

Just in, usa said Putin gave command to commanders to invade but they dont know when. What is a # of ‘intel’ from Biden admin.
I heard the orders to invade were given two days ago and that was on the news.
lol na kevah sun breakjng news😭😭😭😭
This war has been cooking since the Potsdam convention let's crush them and destroy dictatorship and Autocracy once and for all. China and Russia obviously think we are weak for electing chump trump and are trying to take advantage.
I think there's more going on here than reaches the news,as usual.One being Putins need for higher energy prices and Biden supporting it ?
Roger Roger Roger - i hope that the real americans that read this blog aren’t buying into your anti american *** calling their president and country a failure is pretty low.
Biden is a dissaster. He fails after fails. Inflation is high. Rent is thru the roof.
Just like trump supporters. Dems supporters cant smell # from their pres, party
From Captain Covid to GI Joe Biden…how bad will he fail at this? Afghanistan was a smaller operation where he had the upper hand and that went horribly.
Fed up with Putin nonsense. Point all nukes to Russia and see if they want to end humanity as we know it
And markets care why? give me a break
just excuses to continue the correction to -15 % on the spy
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