Investing.com -- Donald Trump’s foreign policy in his second term is centered on countering China, rather than dismantling U.S. alliances.
As per BCA Research, "Trump’s foreign policy is ultimately about countering China, not destroying US alliances."
The administration’s stance reflects a broader shift in U.S. geopolitical strategy, viewing China as the primary challenge to American global dominance.
"By 2029, the general level of US tariffs will be higher than in 2024. But China will suffer the brunt of the tariff barrier, not US allies, as was the case in Trump’s first term," the strategists said in the note.
Trade restrictions, tariffs, and investment barriers are expected to intensify as Washington aims to curb Beijing’s economic and technological rise.
Despite initial fears that Trump’s second term might lead to a break with NATO, his policies suggest otherwise.
"Trump’s foreign policy with Russia is likely to succeed in the short run, unfortunately for Ukraine. Again, Europe benefits," the strategists said.
Rather than dismantling alliances, his administration is pressuring European allies to increase defense spending, particularly in light of ongoing tensions with Russia.
The strategy is designed to shift some of the military burden to Europe while allowing Washington to concentrate its efforts on China.
Trump’s diplomatic approach to Russia also ties into this broader agenda. While his administration is offering concessions to Moscow—including a potential ceasefire in Ukraine—it is doing so with the long-term goal of preventing Russia from becoming entirely dependent on China.
"US-China competition is strategic and not only about trade," BCA said. A weakened but independent Russia is seen as preferable to one fully aligned with Beijing, which would significantly alter the balance of power in Eurasia.
The economic ramifications of Trump’s trade war with China are already being felt. Market uncertainty is rising as the administration doubles down on tariffs.
However, Washington is prepared to cushion some of the economic blow by easing restrictions on trade with key allies, ensuring that the full force of U.S. economic pressure is directed at China rather than friendly nations.
As the U.S. economy slows and global manufacturing remains weak, the risks of recession remain elevated.
"If Trump’s policies can be explained from the perspective of the US’s rational self-interest, then they are not simply the outgrowth of his head. They may last longer than his four years in office," BCA added.