Q3 Earnings Alert! Plan early for this week’s stock reports with all key data in 1 placeSee list

Dollar down as US rate cut bets rise, yen surges

Published 08/04/2024, 08:46 PM
Updated 08/05/2024, 03:21 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Holograms, which show different images and colours depending on the angle at which they are viewed, are seen on the new Japanese 10,000 yen banknote as the new note is displayed at a currency museum of the Bank of Japan, on the day the new not
USD/JPY
-
JP225
-
IXIC
-
BTC/USD
-

By Hannah Lang and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) -A surge in the yen to a seven-month high led a broad dollar fall, as a slew of economic data last week raised the prospect of a U.S. economic downturn and bigger interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six others, was down 0.46% to 102.68, after sinking as low as 102.15, its weakest since January 12.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 2.04% to 143.5, close to the weakest level for the year. The euro was up 0.37% to $1.095, after rising as high as $1.1009, its strongest since Jan. 2.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, along with disappointing earnings reports from large technology firms and heightened concerns over the Chinese economy, have sparked a global sell-off in stocks, oil and high-yielding currencies in the past week as investors sought the safety of cash.

The selling continued on Monday, with U.S. Treasury yields falling further, stock indexes in the red, bitcoin dumped and the dollar losing ground.

"When you zoom out and look at the big picture, whenever there's a crisis in markets, it's clear that there's far too much leverage and everyone is crowded into the same trades," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.

Treasury yields have been falling sharply since last week, when the Fed kept the policy rate in its current 5.25% to 5.50% range while Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened the possibility of a rate cut in September.

But by Friday, after data showed the unemployment rate had jumped, expectations for rate cuts rose.

"Friday's (non-farm payrolls) report was a bit of a shock to the global system, and markets are very worried that the U.S. may no longer be a viable driver of global growth," said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA in Washington.

The Japanese yen's surge comes as traders aggressively unwound carry trades. So-called carry trades, where investors borrow in money from economies with low interest rates such as Japan or Switzerland to fund investments in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, have been popular in recent years.

"Whenever there's trouble, the rush to the exit is so dramatic that it creates these incredible waves in markets that swamp related markets," said Button. "You never know how much money is piled into the carry trade until it unwinds."

On Monday, Fed fund futures reflected traders pricing a near 100% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the central bank's September meeting, according to CME FedWatch.

"The Japanese equity sell-off during Asian trading spooked markets in a big way, coupled with the yen's resurgence, and we may be seeing the so-called 'panic spiral' that many have been concerned about," Monex's Given said.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc, another popular carry trade funding currency, was 0.83% higher at 0.85 to the dollar. The franc, a traditional safe haven, was also trading near a seven-month high.

The dollar found some relief against the British pound as the marked deterioration in global investor risk sentiment sapped demand for riskier currencies.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The depreciation of Mexico's peso extended into its third day on Monday, and the U.S. dollar rose 1.64% to 19.48 pesos, on investor risk aversion.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether plunged on Monday to multi-month lows as investors a rushed out of risky assets. Bitcoin was down 15.11% to $53,094, heading for its largest one-day fall since November 2022. Ether was last down 21.25% at $2,374.70.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.