Investing.com - The U.S. employment report for June gave a mostly positive reading, reducing market conviction that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates by a full half-point when it meets at the end of the month.
Job creation of 224,000 posts was well above consensus while labor force participation also increased. The latter also helps explain the fact that the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 3.7%.
Viraj Patel, FX & global macro strategist at Arkera, called it a “Goldilocks jobs report”, saying that, by itself, it doesn’t warrant a 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP, said he still expected a 25 basis-point cut in July but argued that a half-point cut was "now off the table”.
Markets also reacted by paring back bets on aggressive easing from the Fed. U.S. futures extended losses after the report, the U.S. dollar strengthened against major rivals, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury broke past 2%.
Fed funds futures continued to fully price in a quarter-point reduction (25 basis points) for July, but odds for a 50 basis-point cut receded to just 9% as of 9:17 AM ET (13:17 GMT) from more than 25% ahead of the release.
The implied probability for three quarter-point cuts this year also fell from 57% to just 44%.
“June CPI data will determine whether (the) Fed needs to pull the lever in July,” Patel added. “Reality is we would rule out (a) July cut if every meeting wasn't live.”