Trump announces 50% tariff on copper, effective August 1
By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) -The Federal Reserve’s path to interest rate cuts starting in September appeared to widen on Thursday, after a pair of government reports pointed to cooler inflation and signs of potential weakening in the labor market.
U.S. producer prices advanced 2.6% in May from a year earlier, after rising 2.5% in April, the Labor Department reported. Taken together with tamer-than-expected increases in the Consumer Price Index in May, economists estimated that inflation by the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, likely rose in line with the Fed’s 2% goal last month.
Economists still expect the Trump administration’s tariffs to push up prices and lift inflation later this year, but "the near-term trend remains favorable, enabling the (Fed) to signal next week that it still intends to begin easing policy again later this year," economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote.
They estimate that core PCE rose by just 0.12% in May from April, based on the latest PPI and CPI data. Economists at other Wall Street firms issued similar estimates.
The Fed is nearly universally expected to leave its policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its June 17-18 meeting. Futures that settle to the Fed’s policy rate show traders now expect a quarter-percentage-point reduction by September, with another such move likely in October. Before Thursday’s data, traders had expected the Fed to wait until December to deliver a second rate cut. The U.S. central bank cut rates three times in 2024.
A separate Labor Department report on Thursday showed initial weekly claims for jobless benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 248,000 for the week ended June 7, while continuing claims jumped to 1.951 million, their highest level since November 2021 and a sign that it is getting harder for unemployed workers to find a new job.
"Americans, especially recent graduates, are worried about how hard it is to find a job," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "If layoffs worsen this summer, it will heighten fears of a recession and consumer spending pullback."