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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 05/21/2017, 05:06 AM
Updated 05/21/2017, 05:06 AM
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

© Reuters. 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

Investing.com - Global financial markets will focus on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries highly-anticipated meeting on Thursday to see whether major producers plan to extend their current production-cut agreement.

Meanwhile, investors will look ahead to Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

In addition, market players will keep an eye out on a revised reading of first-quarter U.S. growth data to gauge the strength of the world's largest economy.

Elsewhere, in the U.K., traders will be looking ahead to a second reading on British growth data for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

In the euro zone, market participants will await flash survey data on euro zone business activity for further signs on the strength of the region's economy and hints on when the European Central Bank will start withdrawing stimulus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. OPEC Meeting

Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producing countries will meet in Vienna on Thursday to decide whether to extend their current production agreement beyond a June 30-deadline.

In November last year, OPEC and 11 other non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January 1 and June 30.

Most market analysts expect the oil cartel to extend output cuts for a further nine months until March 2018, instead of six months as previously expected.

There is also talk that OPEC is looking at the option of deepening current production cuts, but it is not clear whether there would be support for that.

So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to a relentless increase in U.S. shale oil output and rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya.

2. Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its most recent policy meeting on Wednesday at 2:00PM ET (18:00GMT). In addition, a handful of Fed policymakers are due to make public appearances this week that may offer insight into the likelihood of higher interest rates in the months ahead.

Monday sees Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans make public appearances.

Kashkari and Harker are scheduled to deliver remarks again on Tuesday.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is on tap Wednesday.

Finally, on Thursday, Brainard and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are scheduled to deliver comments.

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged following its meeting on May 3 and gave a positive assessment of the U.S. economy, suggesting it was still on track for two more rate hikes this year.

But a recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data combined with signs of deepening political turmoil in the White House saw investors temper expectations for higher interest rates in the months ahead.

Futures traders are currently pricing in around a 70% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

3. U.S. Revised 1st Quarter Growth Data

The U.S. is to release revised figures on first-quarter economic growth at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) Friday. The data is expected to show that the economy grew at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, upwardly revised from a preliminary estimate of 0.7%.

Besides the GDP report, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on new home sales, existing home sales, weekly jobless claims, consumer sentiment and durable goods orders.

Investors are likely to continue to fret over the latest headlines coming out of Washington for any new fallout from the Trump campaign investigation.

The deepening turmoil surrounding the Trump administration intensified doubts that the president would be able to follow through on his campaign promises for tax cuts, deregulation and fiscal stimulus.

4. U.K. First Quarter GDP - Second Estimate

The Office for National Statistics is to produce a second estimate on U.K. first-quarter economic growth at 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET) on Thursday.

The report is forecast to confirm the economy grew 0.3% in the January-March quarter, underlining worries that Britain's economy is slowing just as it prepares to start negotiations to leave the European Union.

On a year-over-year basis, the economy is forecast to grow by 2.1%, also unchanged from an initial estimate.

In addition, traders will be keeping an eye out for the Bank of England's Inflation Report due on Tuesday.

Recent data has pointed to signs that rising inflation, caused in part by the pound's post-Brexit vote tumble, is crimping spending by consumers, the main drivers of the economy, just as the country is set to start EU divorce negotiations.

5. Flash Euro Zone PMIs for May

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity for May at 08:00GMT (4:00AM ET) on Tuesday, amid expectations for a modest decline.

Ahead of the euro zone PMI's, France and Germany will release their own PMI reports at 07:00GMT and 07:30GMT respectively.

The European Central Bank is likely to signal a move away from its ultra-easy monetary policy by September as economic performance improves and political risks recede, according to most market experts.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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