Investing.com – Though the month of July will get off to a slow start with Wall Street only open a half day on Monday and closed on Tuesday for the Fourth of July holiday, the pace for markets will quickly pick up as they turn their attention to key events scheduled for the entire month with a particularly close eye on the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Quick start to Fed references
Wednesday will get the ball rolling with the publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
In June, the Fed opted to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to a range between 1.00% and 1.25% and reiterated its forecast that there would be another increase by the end of the year.
Markets continue to disagree with the projection of another rate hike in 2017, putting the odds for a move in December at just 45%, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.
Most of the attention on the minutes will most likely focus on the details of the Fed’s plans for balance sheet normalization with markets widely expecting the central bank to hold off until September to begin implementation.
July 7 will bring two references to the table with first the publication of the June employment report. Consensus is looking for the jobless rate to remain at 4.3% and the creation of 177,000 nonfarm payrolls.
With the U.S. economy near full employment, the Fed will most likely keep an eye on average hourly earnings. Wage inflation has continued to be a missing factor in the firming labor market, one which the Fed believes is primarily responsible for the fact that inflation has not been moving towards its 2% target.
Also Friday, the Fed will release its semiannual monetary policy report, five days ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT) on July 12.
In the past, the report was released with the testimony of the Fed chair.
The Fed said a copy of her prepared remarks would be released the same day at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT).
Her testimony will likely be the last chance for markets to adjust expectations ahead of the next two-day Fed policy meeting on July 25-26.
Fed fund futures put zero chance of a rate increase for the decision on the 26. The meeting also does not include economic projections or a press conference with Yellen, so investors will be stuck analyzing the FOMC statement for any clues as to the Fed’s intentions.
Markets will analyze the language for any signs of change with a particular focus on the views for inflation, which was downgraded at the June meeting.
Reporting season picks up steam
The Fed aside, markets will have other focal points in July that could determine whether the stock rally continues, a correction begins or movement simply flatlines.
The second quarter earnings season will begin in earnest during the week of July 10 with the unofficial start now considered to be JP Morgan’s (NYSE:JPM) report on Friday, July 14 at approximately 7:00AM ET (11:00GMT).
With only 23 of the S&P 500 companies having reported so far, 78% have beat estimates for earnings with growth of 16.4%, while 87% have topped consensus on sales thanks to revenue growth of 8.5%, according to The Earnings Scout.
However, these experts warn that the increase in the collective growth rate will not continue as, in their opinion, earnings topped in the first quarter.
Consensus is expecting year-on-year earnings growth of 7.9%, a far cry below the 15% registered in the first quarter.
Hopes for Congress to pave the way for tax reforms
Markets also have their gaze set throughout the month on the July 28 which is the final day before Congress begins its recess which lasts until September 5.
Investors are anxious for Congress to get several key issues out of the way so they can move on to tax reforms.
Hopes are that Congress will make a final decision on the healthcare bill, paving the way for the 2018 budget to be adopted.
Another factor is the debt ceiling, but stumbling blocks in all cases hinge on an apparent wide divide between conservative and centrist Republicans.
Their disagreement on key issues is the major obstacle for passing legislation in the both chambers despite the party majority.
The slow start to what is usually considered to be a vacation month may well be deceiving.
July may turn out to be anything but a vacation for traders who will face what may be a busy month for market volatility.