Investing.com-- India requires a more robust policy response as economic growth weakens and inflation falls below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, ANZ Research analysts said in a note.
ANZ analysts warned that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could slip toward 6% in the absence of decisive monetary action.
ANZ expects the RBI to implement at least two more rate cuts by June 2025, with the potential for further easing if economic conditions weaken further and weather-related risks remain contained.
The brokerage noted that inflationary pressures have receded faster than expected, driven by a sharp drop in food prices.
The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decline to 3.8%, reinforcing expectations that the RBI will continue its rate-cutting cycle, ANZ analysts said.
The rupee is likely to weaken further, analysts said, but believe stable commodity prices and subdued domestic demand will limit inflationary pass-through.
Analysts also highlighted concerns over India’s investment slowdown, with weakening corporate earnings and moderating private capital expenditure.
While public spending and the "Kumbh" effect provided a temporary boost in early 2025, ANZ warned that these factors would fade, necessitating more structural policy support to sustain economic momentum.
ANZ expects the RBI to enhance liquidity measures alongside rate cuts, helping alleviate a persistent banking sector liquidity deficit.
The investment bank sees room for further policy adjustments to counteract slowing private consumption and external trade headwinds, particularly amid global trade uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies.
The analysts stressed that a proactive approach by policymakers will be key to maintaining India’s economic resilience in the coming quarters.