Investing.com - U.S. officials have limited policy responses should a recent Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit spark a sell-off in government bonds, according to analysts at Citi.
In a note to clients, the analysts argued that "there are few if any" actions available to the Federal Reserve or Treasury Department in the event of a spike in U.S. Treasury yields in the wake of the decision by Moody’s.
"The Fed needs a higher unemployment rate before they take action and re-start the easing cycle, and Treasury has limited room to cut issuance sizes," the analysts wrote.
On Monday, U.S. Treasury yields eased back somewhat from an initial jump, but remain at elevated levels.
Moody’s announced late last week that it had lowered its rating of U.S. credit by one notch to "Aa1" from "Aaa", citing concerns that debt and interest in the country are "significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns". The U.S. currently faces a $36.22 trillion debt pile, according to the Treasury Department.
In a statement, Moody’s added that "successive U.S. administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs".
While there is room for a move higher in Treasury yields, which typically move inversely to prices, the downgrade "should not have much impact in isolation", the Citi analysts said.
The rating cut could reignite fears around foreign demand for U.S. assets, which contributed to a sell-off in April in the wake of President Donald Trump’s announcement of punishing "reciprocal" tariffs, the analysts also flagged. However, recent data pointed to some resilience in foreign demand for Treasuries heading into April, they noted.
Foreign demand was also "pretty much unchanged" after a lowering of the rating for U.S. Treasuries in 2023 by Moody’s-peer Fitch, the strategists said.