Apollo economist warns: AI bubble now bigger than 1990s tech mania
By Patturaja Murugaboopathy
(Reuters) -Global equity IPOs have plunged this year, weighed down by heightened business uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, elevated market volatility and higher interest rates that have raised funding costs and made listings less appealing for issuers.
According to LSEG data, as of June 17, global IPO volume has declined about 9.3% year-on-year to $44.3 billion, the lowest level in nine years.
U.S. IPO volumes dropped 12% to $12.3 billion, while Europe saw a sharper 64% decline to $5.8 billion. In contrast, Asia-Pacific IPO volumes have risen 28% to $16.8 billion so far this year.
President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which included a 10% blanket levy plus targeted duties on U.S. trading partners, re-ignited tensions in April. Despite his subsequent pause and negotiations on trade and tariffs, businesses globally are uncertain about demand and investment.
"It’s not prudent for companies to go public right now. The volatility in the market is unprecedented," said Isabelle Freidheim, founder and managing partner at Athena Capital.
"There’s real risk for tech companies that are still figuring out profitability. If the stock drops after the IPO, it’s very hard to recover, especially for companies with less steady cash flow or that aren’t as mature."
Despite the broader slowdown, China and Japan have seen a sharp pickup in listings, driven by regulatory easing and improved sentiment. A standout was Chinese battery giant CATL, which raised $4.6 billion in the world’s largest IPO so far this year, boosted by renewed market momentum following the U.S. tariff truce.
At the same time, some analysts are cautiously optimistic about a second-half recovery. U.S. IPO interest is showing signs of a rebound, led by fintech firm Chime, which surged on its debut. High-profile names such as Klarna, Gemini and Cerebras are slated to list later this year.
"With U.S., European defence contractors and Indian consumer names also filing, late-2025 could deliver a textbook “trickle-then-torrent” if volatility behaves," said Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors.