Futures slip; PPI, retail sales ahead; Trump on Iran deal - what’s moving markets

Published 05/15/2025, 03:46 AM
© Reuters

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures pointed lower, with markets awaiting a fresh batch of U.S. economic data and company earnings reports. Gauges of producer prices and retail sales are due out, along with quarterly numbers from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Alibaba (NYSE:BABA). Meanwhile, oil prices slump as U.S. President Donald Trump suggests that a nuclear deal with Iran may be close.

1. Futures drop

U.S. stock futures slipped on Thursday following mixed trading in the previous session, as investors looked ahead to fresh economic data and an ebbing flow of corporate earnings.

By 03:39 ET (07:39 GMT), the Dow futures contract had edged down by 219 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures had dropped by 21 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined by 75 points, or 0.4%.

The S&P 500 eked out a limited gain on Wednesday, with the benchmark average rising by 6 points, or 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rose by 137 points, or 0.7%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by 89 points, or 0.2%.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that signs of resilient economic activity, lingering tariff-fueled inflation worries, and concerns over ongoing U.S. budget bill discussions underpinned an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields -- weighing on equities.

Still, it was a relatively quiet session, particularly when compared to recent trade-induced volatility. Earlier in the week, stocks shot higher after the announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China, which bolstered hopes for a calming in tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

2. PPI, retail sales data

On the economic calendar, markets will likely be keeping close tabs on producer price and retail sales data on Thursday.

Figures from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics are tipped to show that the producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.2% on a monthly basis in April.

In March, the PPI dipped for the first time since 2023, dragged down in part by a slump in gasoline costs. Fears that tit-for-tat tariffs would spark a global economic downturn dented oil prices.

Year-over-year, the measure is seen easing to 2.5% from a prior level of 2.7%.

Also on Thursday, retail sales numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau are due out. A surge of buying before the implementation of Trump’s punishing tariffs led to the largest increase in the metric in more than two years in March. Separate surveys have indicated that households have widely been anticipating that the levies will push up prices.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks at a conference in Washington, D.C. Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, with Powell noting strength in the broader economy but rising risks from inflation and unemployment.

3. Earnings ahead

The health of the American consumer may receive another check-up when Walmart reports its latest quarterly results before the start of U.S. trading.

A big-box giant known for its low prices and massive selections, Walmart has become something of a bellwether for shopper sentiment. In February, the company issued downbeat guidance for the year, although CFO John David Rainey said American consumers remain "resilient" and focused on value.

Rainey flagged that Walmart’s outlook did not factor in the impact of U.S. tariffs, although the group did confirm its outlook at an analyst meeting on April 9 -- crucially, after Trump announced his elevated "reciprocal" levies on a host of countries at a White House event.

U.S. comparable sales, excluding gasoline, are expected to have risen by 4.1% at Walmart in the first quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Adjusted per-share earnings are projected to come in at $0.58 on revenue of $166.02 billion.

Elsewhere, quarterly returns are expected from Chinese e-commerce titan Alibaba and agricultural equipment manufacturer Deere & Company (NYSE:DE).

4. Trump on potential Iran deal

Trump has said the U.S. was closing in on a nuclear deal with Iran, adding that Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the terms of an agreement.

Citing pool coverage by AFP, Reuters reported that Trump said negotiations with Iran for "long-term peace" are "very serious". Trump is currently on a multi-day tour of the Gulf.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators held fresh talks to resolve disputes over Tehran’s nuclear program on Sunday, with officials saying they plan to hold future negotiations. Iran has suggested that it is continuing to enrich uranium.

The dispute between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program has been longstanding and negotiators are reportedly still divided on several major differences.

Iran is willing to agree to a deal with the U.S. in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions, an Iranian official told NBC News in an interview published on Wednesday.

5. Oil slides

Oil prices fell sharply Thursday, extending recent losses, as the growing expectations for a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal added to demand concerns following a surprise build in U.S. inventories.

At 03:37 ET, Brent futures dropped 3.1% to $64.06 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 3.2% to $61.12 a barrel.

Both benchmarks lost just under 1% on Wednesday, ending a four-day rally and slipping from the two-week high reached earlier this week.

A U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could potentially allow Tehran to export more of its crude into the world market, loosening the global crude supply-demand balance.

Additionally, data from the Energy Information Administration showed crude stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels in the week ended May 9, suggesting that demand may be cooling in the world’s largest energy consumer.

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