Investing.com - The U.S. and China come to a trade agreement that eases some worries over global trade tensions, lifting U.S. futures. Economic data this week could provide a glimpse into the impact of sweeping U.S. tariffs, while the effect of the levies may also be seen in a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports in the coming days.
1. U.S.-China trade agreement
Underpinning sentiment early this week will likely be indications of an easing in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
In a rare joint statement on Monday following high-stakes trade talks over the weekend, the two countries agreed to a 90-day pause to soaring tariffs placed on each another and will temporarily lower their respective levies.
Washington has moved to slash U.S. President Donald Trump’s so-called "reciprocal" tariffs on China to 10%, while a 20% tariff related to Beijing’s alleged role in the flow of the illegal drug fentanyl remains in force. Meanwhile, China’s duties on U.S. imports are being cut to 10%.
"The consensus from both delegations is that neither side wanted a decoupling," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a news conference, added that there is now a "good mechanism" to avoid any further ratcheting up in tensions.
More negotiations are planned between the two, while both sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues, the countries said.
2. CPI looms large
Headlining the economic calendar this week will be a fresh monthly reading of consumer prices in the U.S., which could shed some light on the impact of recent trade tensions.
The Department of Labor’s consumer price index for April is seen coming in at 2.4%, matching March’s level.
Many economists have warned that Trump’s tariff policies could refuel inflationary pressures in the U.S., while recent consumer surveys have indicated that household are bracing for greater price gains in the months ahead.
Early last month, Trump unveiled punishing tariffs on a host of countries, arguing that the levies were necessary to correct perceived trade imbalances, bolster government revenues and reshore manufacturing jobs lost overseas. Trump later partially delayed most of these tariffs in the wake of deep ructions in stock and bond markets.
3. Earnings ahead
A slew of corporate earnings are also due out this week, with hopes rising that worst-case trade fears may be receding.
Reports are due from a range of companies, including retail chains like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Target, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), in the coming days.
Several executives have warned that the backdrop of trade tensions has clouded the wider outlook, making it more difficult to plan out future investment decisions. Some firms have even moved to scrap their annual guidance altogether until more clarity emerges around Trump’s tariff agenda, while consensus analyst expectations for the next three quarters have decreased.
Still, first-quarter earnings season has broadly been stronger than anticipated. Estimates last week suggested that, with more than 70% of the S&P 500 having now reported, overall earnings are on track to jump by 13.6% for a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES data cited by Reuters. Prior projections had seen the figure at 8%.
4. Fed speakers
Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week, following the central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting earlier this month.
Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson are set to deliver remarks, along with Fed Governors Adriana Kugler, Christopher Waller and Michael Barr, according to the Fed.
Last Wednesday, the Fed chose to keep rates steady at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, although policymakers flagged that risks to both inflation and unemployment had risen.
Powell later argued that borrowing costs remain in a fairly good position at the moment, giving officials time to assess the impact from any major changes to Trump’s tariffs before making future changes.
5. Trump tax cut debate
The House Ways and Means Committee is due to debate and potentially advance a preliminary and incomplete draft of their tax plan on Tuesday.
Charged with overseeing tax policies, the committee released last week a partial text of its part of Trump’s proposed tax agenda, although some more contentious issues were left out ahead of the meeting this week.
Among the committee’s proposals would be an increase in the child tax credit and new requirements for recipients to have secured a Social Security number. Some taxes for mutinational companies and unincorporated businesses would also be brought down.
However, it does not include comments on issues like a deduction for state and local taxes or plans for the Medicaid healthcare program.
Republicans in the U.S. Congress have been at odds over how to roll out Trump’s so-called "big, beautiful bill" that would fold in a multitrillion-dollar tax cut but leave the fate of Medicaid and the nation’s debt ceiling in doubt.