Investing.com - The U.S. economy is expected to have added a "robust" number of jobs in February, with the impact of DOGE-driven recent mass layoffs in the federal government likely muted, according to analysts at BofA.
In a note to clients on Tuesday, the analysts led by Shruti Mishra predicted that the all-important monthly nonfarm payrolls report will come in at 185,000, which would be up from 143,000 in January. Investing.com estimates see the number at 156,000.
Government job additions are likely to be at a slightly smaller than average 25,000 for the month due in large part to a hiring freeze in Washington, D.C., the analysts said.
Spearheaded by Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and under the watch of President Donald Trump, the newly-created Department of Government Efficiency -- or DOGE -- has been pushing to ratchet down the size of the federal government, often through widespread dismissals. Musk and Trump have argued that the effort, which has faced some sharp backlash and legal challenges from Democratic-led states and liberal-leaning legal groups, is designed to root out wasteful in government spending.
About 100,000 workers have either accepted buyouts or been fired, according to Reuters. There are roughly 2.3 million federal employees in total.
Still, given relatively muted jobless claims data last week, the cuts are not expected to have caused a sizable drag on February payrolls, the BofA analysts said.
They noted that federal jobless claims in the week ending on February 15 showed "little increase," while applications for unemployment benefits in the Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia area -- where many federal workers live -- was "small but noticable" in February.
"Hence, we do not expect probationary layoffs to be a sizable drag in February. That said, March payrolls are more likely to be adversely affected by federal layoffs," the BofA analysts said.