(Reuters) - Analysts expect U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs to weaken global economic growth, fuel volatility in markets and raise inflationary pressures.
Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank, which had held the highest year-end target for the S&P 500 index so far, slashed it 6,150 from 7,000.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY
target yield target
UBS Global 4.25% 1.12 150 7.60
Research 5300
Goldman Sachs 5700 4.4% 1.02 (next 152 (next 12 7.35 (next
12 months) months) 12 months)
UBS Global 5800 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50
Wealth
Management
Wells Fargo 5900-6100 4.00%-4.50% 0.98-1.02 158-162
Investment
Institute
Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 6750 4.50% (Q4’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28
Deutsche Bank 4.65% (Q4’25) 1.10 145 7.35
6150
Nomura 4.15% 1.03 135 6.93
Morgan Stanley 6500 4% (Q4’25) 1.08 (Q4’25) 141 (Q4’25) 7.60
(Q4’25)
J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.14 (Q4’25) 140 (Q4’25)
7.60
BofA Global 5600 4.25% 1.15 165 7.30
Research
Wells Fargo 3.96% 0.98 (Q4’25) 154 (Q4’25) 7.60
(Q4’25)
BMO Capital 6100
Markets
Jefferies 5300 4.43%
Barclays 5900 4.00% (Q4’25) 1.06 (Q4’25) 144 (Q4’25) 7.50
(Q4’25)
Piper Sandler 6600
Berenberg 4.90% 1.10 140 7.30
BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 4.65% (Q4’25) 1.00 (Q4’25) 156 (Q4’25)
Canaccord 6325
Genuity
Citigroup (NYSE:C) 5800 4.20% (Q4’25) 1.05 139
ING 1.02 160 7.35
HSBC 6700
Evercore ISI 6800
Peel Hunt 4.20% 1.11 (Q4’25)
RBC Capital 5550 4%
Markets
Oppenheimer 5950
Asset Management
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)
Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 3.4% 3.5%
J.P.Morgan 3.7% 4.4%
Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.5% (Q4/Q4)
Barclays 3.1% 2.5%
Wells Fargo 2.8% 2.8%
Societe Generale 2.3% 2.5%
Deutsche Bank 3.4% 3.6% (Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo 3.5%
Investment
Institute
UBS Global 2.6%
Wealth
Management
Citigroup 2.7% 2.6%
BofA Global 2.9% 2.3% (Q4/Q4)
Research
Berenberg 2.9% 2.6%
BNP Paribas 2.3%
Nomura 3.0% 3.3%
ING 2.4%
Jefferies 2.3% 2.5%
UBS Global 2.7%
Research
Peel Hunt 3.2%
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025
Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA
UBS Global 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.5% 0.7% 6% (FY26)
Research
Goldman Sachs 2.5% 1.3% 4.0% 0.7% 0.95% 6.1%
Barclays 2.9% 1.5% 4.3% 0.7% 0.7% 7.0%
Morgan Stanley 2.9% 2.1% 4.5% 0.8% 1.4% 6.5%
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 1.0% 4.3% 0.8% 0.7% 6.0%
UBS Global Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%
Management
Wells Fargo 2.7% 1.3% 4.5% 0.9% 0.8% 5.9%
Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%
Citigroup 2.3% 1.4% 4.2% 0.8% 2.0% 6.7%
Nomura 2.8% 1.4% 4.5% 0.8% 0.8% 5.9%
BofA Global 3.1% 2.1% 4.5% 0.9% 1.4% 6.6%
Research
Deutsche Bank 2.9% 1.7% 4.5% 0.5% 0.8% 6.5%
(Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo 2.1% 1.0% 0.9%
Investment
Institute
Berenberg 2.8% 2.6% 5.0% 1.0% 0.9% 6.5%
BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.0% 1.1% 6.2% (March
2026)
Peel Hunt 1.5% 4.5% 0.9% 1.1% 6.3%
ING 2.0% 4.6% 0.7% 1.4%
Jefferies 2.4%
(Q4/Q4)
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank