(Reuters) - Some of the major brokerages have revised downward their U.S. recession forecasts after a temporary tariff truce between the U.S. and China eased global trade tensions and sparked a rally in riskier assets this week.
Goldman Sachs, the first major brokerage to make this adjustment, lowered its recession probability from 45% to 35%. Barclays has dismissed recession risks altogether, while J.P. Morgan now estimates the likelihood of a recession to be below 50%.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 6,100 from 5,900.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY
target yield target
UBS Global 5300 4.25% 1.12 150 7.60
Research
Goldman Sachs 4.35% 1.20 (next 135 (next 12 7.35 (next
6100 12 months) months) 12 months)
UBS Global 5800 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50
Wealth
Management
Wells Fargo 5900-6100 4.00%-4.50% 0.98-1.02 158-162
Investment
Institute
Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 6750 4.50% (Q4’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28
Deutsche Bank 6150 4.65% (Q4’25) 1.10 145 7.35
Nomura 4.15% 1.03 135 6.93
Morgan Stanley 6500 4% (Q4’25) 1.08 (Q4’25) 141 (Q4’25) 7.60
(Q4’25)
J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.14 (Q4’25) 140 (Q4’25) 7.60
BofA Global 5600 4.25% 1.15 165 7.30
Research
Wells Fargo 3.96% 0.98 (Q4’25) 154 (Q4’25) 7.60
(Q4’25)
BMO Capital 6100
Markets
Jefferies 5300 4.43%
Barclays 5900 4.00% (Q4’25) 1.06 (Q4’25) 144 (Q4’25) 7.50
(Q4’25)
Piper Sandler 6600
Berenberg 4.90% 1.10 140 7.30
BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 4.65% (Q4’25) 1.00 (Q4’25) 156 (Q4’25)
Canaccord 6325
Genuity
Citigroup (NYSE:C) 5800 4.20% (Q4’25) 1.05 139
ING 1.02 160 7.35
HSBC 5,600
Evercore ISI 6800
Peel Hunt 4.20% 1.11 (Q4’25)
RBC Capital 5550 4%
Markets
Oppenheimer 5950
Asset Management
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)
Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 3.5% 3.0%
J.P.Morgan 3.7% 4.4%
Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.5% (Q4/Q4)
Barclays 3.1% 2.5%
Wells Fargo 2.8% 2.8%
Societe Generale 2.3% 2.5%
Deutsche Bank 3.4% 3.6% (Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo 3.5%
Investment
Institute
UBS Global 2.6%
Wealth
Management
Citigroup 2.7% 2.6%
BofA Global 2.9% 2.3% (Q4/Q4)
Research
Berenberg 2.9% 2.6%
BNP Paribas 2.3%
Nomura 3.0% 3.3%
ING 2.4%
Jefferies 2.3% 2.5%
UBS Global 3.2%
Research
Peel Hunt 3.2%
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025
Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA
UBS Global 3.0% 1.4% 4.0% 0.5% 0.7% 6% (FY26)
Research
Goldman Sachs 2.1% 1.4% 4.0% 0.8% 1.0% 6.1%
Barclays 2.9% 1% 7.0%
0.9% 4.0% 0.5%
Morgan Stanley 2.9% 2.1% 4.5% 0.8% 1.4% 6.5%
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 1.0% 4.3% 0.8% 0.7% 6.0%
UBS Global Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%
Management
Wells Fargo 2.7% 1.3% 4.5% 0.9% 0.8% 5.9%
Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%
Citigroup 2.3% 1.4% 4.2% 0.8% 2.0% 6.7%
Nomura 2.8% 1.4% 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 5.9%
BofA Global 3.1% 2.1% 4.5% 0.9% 1.4% 6.6%
Research
Deutsche Bank 2.9% 1.7% 4.5% 0.5% 0.8% 6.5%
(Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo 2.1% 1.0% 0.9%
Investment
Institute
Berenberg 2.8% 2.6% 5.0% 1.0% 0.9% 6.5%
BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.0% 1.1% 6.2% (March
2026)
Peel Hunt 1.5% 4.5% 0.9% 1.1% 6.3%
ING 2.0% 0.7% 1.4%
4.7%
Jefferies 2.4%
(Q4/Q4)
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank