Investing.com -- Retailers have not yet raised prices significantly in response to looming tariff increases, despite growing pressure from higher import costs, according to Bernstein analysts.
“Based on CPI data and our proprietary price tracker, retailers haven’t taken significant pricing actions yet, but this could change,” Bernstein wrote in a note to clients Thursday.
The analysts emphasized that the retail sector remains in a precarious position as it balances rising input costs with already stretched consumer wallets.
“This is all happening in an environment where consumers’ spending power has already been squeezed for three years since the onset of inflation in 2022,” they added.
While price hikes seem inevitable if Chinese tariffs reach 145%, Bernstein noted only a modest 1.6% increase in prices on a common basket of consumer packaged goods since January.
“The price increase has been led by food grocers, where prices have gone up by 2.7%,” the analysts said, attributing the rise more to general food inflation than tariff-related cost pressures.
Bernstein raised questions about whether broadline retailers will limit price increases to discretionary items or spread them across categories.
They state that while Walmart (NYSE:WMT) reaffirmed its commitment to competitive grocery pricing, others may be forced to act preemptively.
So far, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Costco (NASDAQ:COST) remain the price leaders, with Walmart close behind.
Meanwhile, “Target is the most expensive retailer in our Broadlines Retail coverage,” Bernstein noted, with its basket costing 11% more than Walmart’s and 19% more than Amazon’s.
Dollar General (NYSE:DG), with only 4% direct import exposure, “can keep prices largely stable while others come under pressure,” potentially positioning it as a trade-down beneficiary amid continued consumer belt-tightening, according to the firm.
Bernstein said it will monitor retail pricing closely as tariff impacts unfold later this year.