Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

India's GDP growth likely touched a record in April-June: Reuters poll

Economic IndicatorsAug 26, 2021 01:00AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People walk at a crowded market in the old quarters of Delhi, India, April 6, 2021. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis/File Photo

By Manjul Paul

BENGALURU (Reuters) - Indian economic growth likely touched a record high in the quarter through June, reflecting a very weak base last year and a rebound in consumer spending, a Reuters poll found.

The Aug. 20-25 Reuters poll of 41 economists showed gross domestic product rose 20.0% in the three-month period, compared with a record contraction of 24.4% in the same quarter a year earlier.

Forecasts in the poll ranged from 10.5% to 31.6%, showing the considerable uncertainty around those base effects.

The rebound came despite the drag from the deadly second wave of the coronavirus, which forced states across India to reimpose localised lockdowns and stop mobility completely from late April to early June.

But unlike during the nationwide lockdown last year, repeat state-level lockdowns had a less pronounced impact on the economy as they left more room for consumers to spend.

"India's second COVID-19 wave acted as a stumbling block to the robust recovery that was underway. Still, the economic damage appears to be less than previously expected," said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays (LON:BARC).

If the poll median is realised, it would be India's fastest growth since official quarterly data started being released in the mid-1990s. That's up sharply from 1.6% in the previous quarter, but a bit slower than the Reserve Bank of India's 21.4% projection.

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic began in April just as the economy was beginning to rally from a lull at the start of the year, throwing the recovery off course, although not as much as many feared.

"Humanitarian costs of the health crisis were high, but the economic impact was less severe than the first wave and activity rebounded faster," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Bank.

A separate Reuters poll a month ago predicted India's GDP would expand 19.8% in the April-June quarter, little different to the latest median, and 9.4% for the current fiscal year. [ECILT/IN]

However, the spread of potential new virus variants poses a threat.

"The recovery remains uneven," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA. "The risks to watch out for are a third wave of COVID-19, a slower than expected pace of vaccinations, and lastly, new variants that may emerge which may not be very amenable to the vaccines which exist right now."

India's GDP growth likely touched a record in April-June: Reuters poll
 

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email