Today we’ll be looking at Tron and a harmonic trading pattern known as ‘the Gartley’, devised by H.M Gartley in 1932. Harmonic trading patterns are a variety geometrical triangle formations that arise under strict conditions, using certain fibonacci number rules to predict key trend reversal points. The Gartley pattern is one of the most commonly used harmonic patterns by traders today.
Below in the 4hr TRX/BTC chart, is the completed view of a bullish Gartley formation that should break out off the final D point (which sits perfectly along the 700 Sats level).
Before we look at price targets, let’s review how Tron’s price action here satisfies the Gartley criteria.
Point 1 (XA)
To start this pattern off we first need to identify the opening uptrend or impulse leg, similar to locating Elliott Wave trends. In this case Tron ran dramatically from 595 Sats on April 23rd, all the way up to 1,080 Sats a week later.
Point 2 (AB)
The rules of a bullish Gartley state that point B should touch the 0.618 fibonacci level along the XA fib retracement, but is allowed in some cases to exceed towards the 0.786 level provided it does NOT touch the 0.786 line.
In this case, TRX retraces perfectly to the 0.618 fibonacci level with the candle wick drifting slightly into the lower region.
Point 3 (BC)
Point C represents the second impulse leg of the pattern and should pass above the 0.618 fib level of an AB fib retracement, but not exceed the 0.886 fib level. Here, Tron sits perfectly at the 0.786 resistance level and satisfies this criteria.
Point 4 (CD)
The final point, D, is calculated by an ABA fib extension where D should rest along the 1.272 point. This can be also supplemented by an AB fib retracement, where the same D point should line up closely with the 0.786 fib level. In the chart above you can see (green box) that these two values also satisfy this criteria. It’s also worth noting that D falls on a historically important resistance level, when Tron first entered the market as well as holding down the bulls during the testnet surge at the end of March.
Further confirmations of this trend come from bearish diverging EMA’s on the chart, where a death cross has recently formed between the 50 (blue) and 200 (red) EMA over 4hr candles.
This strong sell signal which should assist in driving the price action closer towards the D point target, down at 700 Sats.
We can also see the MACD and RSI indicators both highlighting similar downtrends in momentum.
RSI is recovering from earlier oversold moments, but struggling to break above the central line of the channel.
MACD has been lingering beneath the signal line for over a week now as the latest Tron announcements failed to inspire bullish support.
We can see the blue faster moving MA starting to converge above the slower red MA, but this is not necessarily a reversal signal.
Tron (TRX) Price Prediction
We should expect a strong rebounding price action once TRX reaches point D, at 700 Sats.
It’s likely that the dormant Tron community will be patiently waiting for the BTC market to subdue before launching their bullish offensive.
Our first price target will be back to 0.618 fib level (XA retracement) at 782 Sats (11.71% gain from point D)
The second price target will be the 0.382 fib level at 898 Sats (28.29% ROI)
The final price target will be back towards the price point where TRX peaked before the most recent bearish decline, around 968 Sats (38.28% ROI)
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