Investing.com -- Bitcoin’s latest rally may have more room to run, according to Piper Sandler analysts, who point to historical price patterns tied to the cryptocurrency’s halving cycles.
“Previous Bitcoin halving cycles suggest this bull run could continue for another ~5 months,” analyst Patrick Moley said in a Friday note.
Bitcoin’s halving events occur roughly every four years and have historically marked the beginning of extended upward price movements. Moley observes that Bitcoin reached peak levels 1,069 days after the 2017 cycle bottom and 1,059 days after the 2021 cycle bottom.
With the current cycle’s bottom marked at $15.5k on November 21, 2022, and 906 days since that point, Moley estimates another 158 days — or about five months — until a potential peak in October 2025.
"We’d note that in the last 3 cycles (2013, 2017 & 2021), the price of Bitcoin appreciated ~585% on average in the 5 months prior to reaching peak levels,” the note added.
"Bottom line, we believe this crypto bull run has legs and expect crypto companies to continue benefiting from rising crypto prices and market volumes."
But despite positive sentiment and rising prices, Piper Sandler cautions that regulatory clarity remains a key missing piece.
While recent moves by the SEC and FDIC have been encouraging, including the formation of a crypto task force and supportive bank guidance, the market is still waiting for comprehensive legislation to take shape.
Moley highlights Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) as a standout stock pick in the current cycle, calling it “the most attractive risk/reward way to play the crypto bull run.” He pointed to its diversified platform and record equity and options volumes in April, even as crypto volumes fell month-over-month.
For Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), however, Moley holds a more cautious view. While its planned $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit could strengthen its global crypto derivatives footprint, the analyst warns that the deal’s impact hinges on regulatory progress:
“Deribit currently offers NO derivative products that are regulatory compliant in the U.S. – meaning if the deal closed today, COIN would be entirely unable to cross-sell to their largely U.S. customer base.”
Miners, meanwhile, are expected to remain strong performers through the second half of 2025 as crypto and AI-driven demand for power infrastructure continues to rise.