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Data shows the ‘Bitcoin price drops ahead of CME expiries’ claim is a myth

Published 05/15/2021, 02:30 PM
Updated 05/16/2021, 04:20 PM
Data shows the ‘Bitcoin price drops ahead of CME expiries’ claim is a myth

Historically, activity surrounding the Bitcoin (BTC) monthly futures and options expiry has been blamed for weakening bullish momentum. A few studies from 2019 found a 2.3% average drop in BTC price 40 hours before the CME futures settlement date.

However, as Cointelegraph reported in June 2020, the effect faded away. While 2020 seems to have rejected the potential negative impact of CME expiries, so far, the current year appears to validate the theory. Bitcoin’s price has been suppressed ahead of futures and options expiry in the first three months of 2021.

Bitcoin performance before and after CME expiry, USD. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin performance after “Last Quarter” moon, USD. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin performance before and after CME expiry in 2020, USD. Source: TradingView

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