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Bitcoin's Boom-Bust Cycle Reminiscent of Dot.com Era

Published 03/21/2018, 11:58 AM
Updated 03/21/2018, 11:58 AM

Investing.com - Comparisons to the dot.com era are rarely good.
And that's the case with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)'s analysis, which says bitcoin is behaving the way the Nasdaq did two decades ago.
In a note to clients, the Wall Street firm identified general similarities between the price movements and trading volumes of the Nasdaq in late 1999 and early 2000 and bitcoin in late 2017 and early 2018.
Both the Nasdaq and bitcoin posted rallies of more than 250%, before entering sharp downturns.
Once the downturns began, both suffered multiple waves of weakness with average declines of about 45%.
In both cases, there were multiple bear market rallies with average gains of about 40%.
Finally, trading volume was much higher during the downturn periods than the rally periods, indicating what Morgan Stanley calls a "a rush to get out."
There is one main difference, though. The bitcoin rally played out in a much shorter period of time.

Latest comments

Morgan Stanley Compares Bitcoin Boom to Dot-Com Bubble, But 15 Times Faster. https://cryptocomes.com/morgan-stanley-compares-bitcoin-boom-to-dot-com-bubble-but-15-times-faster
There has always been this persistent, restless, peculiar, strange habit of comparing the entire world of Bitcoin to a whatsoever form of/in the more "regular" world of finance and stocks, broadly speaking. BUT...reality is there is NO connection at all. Even if you want to look for it, at all costs. Year after year all the same comments and observations are made trying to look for connections and they always turn out to be empty air. Shouldn't they, at least, try using a bit more imagination while conceiving their daring, reckless theories?
That's what everyone says about the latest craze: this is the future, a revolution, you can't compare it to anything that came before...except it isn't, and sure you can. The bubble is not about the asset, it's about the people flocking to get a piece of the action, and as soon as they stop believing in it, Bitcoin, as a currency, it's pretty much worthless. The technology itself is very promising for other purposes, but that has almost *zero* to do with the current valuation of crypto.. Besides, even if there is a future for cryptocurrencies, do you think the early ones are going to be the 'winners'? Just like when you started to see new services in the early days of the internet, I'm sure a lot of people thought that Napster, AOL, Altavista, etc.. would be around forever, and look what happened ...
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