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5 tips for riding out a downbeat market this holiday season

Cryptocurrency Nov 24, 2022 02:20PM ET
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5 tips for riding out a downbeat market this holiday season
 
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These forecasts are driven by deteriorating structural fundamentals. For example, credit card debt has surged past even 2020 levels, with interest rates charged by banks that are just slightly higher than those observed leading up to the post-2000 dot-com crash. And yet, labor force participation rates — or the proportion of the population that is able to work and is working — have still not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, inflation — as measured by the consumer price index — has surged over the past few years.

Economic forecasts suggest that we are in for greater economic turbulence. The United States has been in a recession and that recession is expected to continue, with the Conference Board forecasting a further decline in gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.5% in Q4 of this year. It also anticipates that the recession will continue into at least Q2 of 2023. That was before the collapse of crypto trading platform FTX, which had profound downstream effects on investment portfolios and non-crypto companies. Other more optimistic forecasts, such as those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and S&P Global, are just barely positive for 2023 at 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively.

Consumer Debt & Interest Rates in the United States, 1995-2020. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
Labor Force Participation in the United States, 1950-2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer Price Index, 2011-2022. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
Christos A. Makridis is a research affiliate at Stanford University and Columbia Business School and the chief technology officer and co-founder of Living Opera (NASDAQ:OPRA), a multimedia art-tech Web3 startup. He holds doctoral degrees in economics and management science and engineering from Stanford University.

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5 tips for riding out a downbeat market this holiday season
 

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