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China study warns of 'colossal' COVID outbreak if it opens up like U.S., France

CoronavirusNov 28, 2021 01:27PM ET
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© Reuters. A security guard blocks an exit as he directs people to scan a QR code to track their health status at Shanghai Hongqiao Railway Station, following new cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Shanghai, China, November 25, 2021. Picture taken Novem

BEIJING (Reuters) - China could face more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel curbs, according to a study by Peking University mathematicians.

In the report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the mathematicians said China could not afford to lift travel restrictions without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatments.

Using data for August from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, the mathematicians assessed the potential results if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries.

China's daily new cases would reach at least 637,155 if it adopted the United States' pandemic strategy, the report said.

And daily cases would hit 275,793 if China took the same approach as Britain and 454,198 if it imitated France, it said.

"The estimates revealed the real possibility of a colossal outbreak which would almost certainly induce an unaffordable burden on the medical system," the report said.

"Our findings have raised a clear warning that, for the time being, we are not ready to embrace 'open-up' strategies resting solely on the hypothesis of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain western countries."

The mathematicians cautioned that their estimates were based on basic arithmetic calculations and that more sophisticated models were needed to study the evolution of the pandemic if travel restrictions were lifted.

China has maintained a zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19, saying the importance of containing local cases when they are found outweighs the disruptions caused by efforts to trace, isolate and treat the infected.

China reported 23 new confirmed coronavirus cases for Nov. 27, down from 25 a day earlier, its health authority said on Sunday.

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday designated a new COVID-19 variant detected in South Africa with a large number of mutations as being "of concern", prompting some countries to impose travel curbs.

China study warns of 'colossal' COVID outbreak if it opens up like U.S., France
 

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Comments (10)
Dominic Mazoch
Dominic Mazoch Nov 28, 2021 6:45PM ET
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Or is the CCP near meltdown in one of various ways, and using lockdown as protest control.
David David
David9 Nov 28, 2021 6:45PM ET
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Did you watch The Epoch Times.... Braaahahahaaa...
Lukasz Pisarczyk
Lukasz Pisarczyk Nov 28, 2021 6:05PM ET
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China CDC, really? China virus
David David
David9 Nov 28, 2021 6:05PM ET
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There is no such thing as China virus. Unless you are still hoping Trump is your President.
Kaveh Sun
Kaveh Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:16PM ET
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Lots of China bots here: Sean livingston, David,etc. Sean is a racist bot.
David David
David9 Nov 28, 2021 4:16PM ET
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No, I am not a bot. I defend the truth and called out misinformation.
arthur santos
arthur santos Nov 28, 2021 4:16PM ET
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Facing a mirror, mate? Just another troll...
Mox Mox
Mox Mox Nov 28, 2021 3:15PM ET
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Actually, China is just doing what most western countries did months ago: fearmongering, spreading lies and party propaganda to control it's citizens.
David David
David9 Nov 28, 2021 3:15PM ET
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The difference is... results are way different... they are in the A class of performance and most countries got an F.
David David
David9 Nov 28, 2021 2:09PM ET
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China is doing a great job at containment. I sense that there are jealousy that China with 1.4B is able to control the spread so effectively.
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David David
David9 Nov 28, 2021 2:09PM ET
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how do you know? what's your source? Fox News? CNN News?
Walter Jeffries
Walter Jeffries Nov 28, 2021 2:09PM ET
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China is also doing great at authoritarianism
David David
David9 Nov 28, 2021 2:09PM ET
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95% of the people there loves it so leave them alone... they have a different philosophy of how a country is govern... it is a 5000 yr history of this central governance that has kept them going forward...
Zebra Lo
Zebra Lo Nov 28, 2021 2:09PM ET
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David David these guys are afraid to learn the truth about china and the rest of world, after so many years of fox cnn brainwashing propaganda. I am proud of my self that i read fox cnn also media around the world
Ziling Chen
Ziling Chen Nov 28, 2021 2:09PM ET
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I live in China and you are right. In case someone wonders why I am so sure because no one in my college or my company got infected at all.
ste tor
ste tor Nov 28, 2021 2:02PM ET
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27 Daily cases for over a billion population...credible
CRAIG HARRIS
CRAIG HARRIS Nov 28, 2021 2:02PM ET
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Incredible IMO
Matt Brackley
Matt Brackley Nov 28, 2021 2:02PM ET
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short chop makers...China no play.
Matt Brackley
Matt Brackley Nov 28, 2021 2:02PM ET
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*chip
jj mm
jj mm Nov 28, 2021 1:31PM ET
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coronavirus is not a natural virus but a laboratory creation. weak up people
David David
David9 Nov 28, 2021 1:31PM ET
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If you can get Dr. Fauci to say that, I will believe you. If you can't then get the 🐸 out of here...
Jeremy Johnson
Jeremy Johnson Nov 28, 2021 1:31PM ET
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David David  you haven't been watching the senate hearings, I'm guessing?
Chris Sundo
Chris Sundo Nov 28, 2021 9:35AM ET
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Mathematicians in China .. It's useless to put trust in anything out of China because everything out of China is influenced by censorship and propaganda. Why waste time?
Zebra Lo
Zebra Lo Nov 28, 2021 9:35AM ET
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The US had no censorship, so we were hearing that 'big flu' president and 100k daily covid cases for two years now. How brilliant two years that were not "wasted time" lol
Walter Jeffries
Walter Jeffries Nov 28, 2021 9:35AM ET
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the US has no censorship? are you kidding me? You're living in Brave New World right now, you just don't know it.
David CA
ILoveQE Nov 28, 2021 3:59AM ET
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Yeah...they should definitely know about this mess...they invented the CCP virus
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Sean Livingstone
Sean Livingstone Nov 28, 2021 3:59AM ET
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Covid is not from China.
John Berry
John Berry Nov 28, 2021 3:59AM ET
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Where is it from?
Zebra Lo
Zebra Lo Nov 28, 2021 3:59AM ET
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Ask president "big flu" where it came from
sam Ala
sam Ala Nov 28, 2021 3:59AM ET
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Yes, Xi. China..
CRAIG HARRIS
CRAIG HARRIS Nov 28, 2021 3:59AM ET
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John Berry The Great US of A
 
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