Introduction & Market Context
Stardust Power Inc (NASDAQ:SDST) presented its Q2 2025 investor presentation on May 14, 2025, outlining its strategy to become a leading domestic producer of battery-grade lithium amid growing demand from electric vehicle manufacturers. The presentation comes as the company faces significant financial challenges, with its stock trading at $0.715, down 4.03% on the day and dramatically below its 52-week high of $28.38.
The company is developing what it describes as one of the largest lithium refineries in the United States, positioned to capitalize on the projected growth in lithium demand driven by EV adoption. However, this ambitious vision contrasts sharply with SDST’s recent financial performance, which saw net losses widen to $3.8 million in Q1 2025, up from $1.4 million a year earlier.
Strategic Initiatives
Stardust Power’s core strategy centers on its lithium refinery project in Muskogee, Oklahoma, where the company has secured 66 acres for development. The facility is designed to produce up to 50,000 metric tons of battery-grade lithium annually, to be implemented in two phases of 25,000 metric tons each.
The company emphasizes its strategic location in the heartland of the United States, with access to major transportation networks including the nation’s largest inland waterway system, highways, and railroads.
As shown in the following rendering of the planned facility:
The company’s business model involves aggregating lithium supply from multiple sources, including signed offtake agreements with GeoLithium and QX Resources, and a letter of intent for the Jackpot Lake project in Nevada. This approach aims to create a vertically integrated supply chain from raw material extraction to refined lithium products.
The following diagram illustrates Stardust Power’s strategy to bridge gaps in the American lithium supply chain:
Detailed Financial Analysis
Despite the ambitious plans, Stardust Power’s financial reality presents significant challenges. According to the company’s Q1 2025 earnings report, its net loss increased to $3.8 million, with loss per share rising to 7 cents from 4 cents a year earlier. Cash reserves stood at $1.6 million as of March 2025, up from $900,000 in December 2024, but the company’s current ratio of 0.09 indicates concerning cash burn.
The investor presentation disclosed a market capitalization of approximately $30.08 million, with 60.16 million common shares outstanding and 10.4 million warrants. Insider ownership stands at 56.7%, and the company reports no corporate debt.
This capital structure is presented against a backdrop of a stock that has declined 93.6% over the past year, trading significantly below its 52-week high of $28.38.
Government Support & Partnerships
A key element of Stardust Power’s strategy involves leveraging government support and incentives. The company reports that up to $257 million in state incentives may be available from Oklahoma, including cash rebates on payroll and investment tax credits.
The following slide details the potential state incentives:
Beyond state support, the company is positioning itself to benefit from federal initiatives supporting domestic lithium production, citing the Inflation Reduction Act’s estimated $500 billion in spending and tax incentives, plus $3 billion in federal grants.
The presentation highlights the strategic importance of U.S. lithium independence:
Stardust Power has also established partnerships with several companies to support its development plans, including Enercon for site due diligence and strategic partners Primero, Zelandez, KMX Technologies, and Hatch for various technical aspects of the project.
Competitive Industry Position
The company benchmarks itself against both U.S. and international lithium producers, reporting an EV/Total Stated Capacity ratio of 8.9x, compared to a mean of 13.5x for U.S. listed competitors and 9.2x for international peers.
The following competitive benchmarking illustrates Stardust Power’s positioning:
The presentation emphasizes the projected growth in lithium demand, driven primarily by electric vehicle adoption. Global passenger EV sales are expected to increase from 14% to 30% of total vehicle sales between 2022 and 2026.
This projected demand growth is illustrated in the following forecast:
The company also highlights the expected supply deficit in battery-grade lithium, suggesting a significant market opportunity:
Forward-Looking Statements
Stardust Power outlined several key milestones in its development timeline, including the groundbreaking that occurred on January 22, 2025, and a Sumitomo Americas Corp offtake agreement signed on February 3, 2025.
The timeline of anticipated milestones is presented here:
According to the Q1 earnings call, the company is targeting a Final Investment Decision (FID) for its lithium refinery before the end of 2025 and is in discussions for project financing with MUFG.
The company’s phased approach to vertical integration is outlined below:
Executive Summary
Stardust Power’s Q2 2025 investor presentation portrays an ambitious vision for domestic lithium production that stands in stark contrast to its current financial challenges. While the company has made progress on securing land, partnerships, and potential government support for its Oklahoma refinery, widening losses and a severely depressed stock price raise questions about its ability to execute on its plans without significant additional funding.
The presentation emphasizes the strategic importance of domestic lithium production and projects strong demand growth, but investors will likely need to see tangible progress toward the Final Investment Decision and improved financial performance before regaining confidence in the company’s prospects. With the stock trading near its 52-week low, the market appears skeptical about Stardust Power’s ability to bridge the gap between its strategic vision and financial reality.
Full presentation:
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