By Pavel Polityuk
KYIV (Reuters) -Ukrainian corn, a key element in the country’s grain sector, could benefit from the tariffs imposed by the U.S., as it is able to partially substitute for U.S. corn if retaliatory sanctions are imposed, analysts said on Thursday.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% minimum tariff on most imports, with significantly higher duties on goods from dozens of countries including China, which is likely to prompt countermeasures potentially driving up prices and reducing demand for U.S. goods.
Ukraine is a major global corn grower and exporter.
"If key importers do end up imposing tariffs on U.S. corn, it will open a huge window of opportunity for alternative suppliers," ASAP Agri consultancy said in a statement.
"Ukrainian corn is in a strong position here: competitive pricing, stable logistics, and close ties with the European Union and Asian markets," it added.
The consultancy said Brazil is first in line, but its harvest cannot cover all the demand and that is where Ukraine can step in and claim its share.
Another consultancy, Barva Invest, said Ukraine perceives the U.S. as an export competitor in the grains and oilseeds market, not a trading partner, and potential counter-restrictions by other countries on U.S. exports will have the greatest impact.
It added that the EU, Australia and China are most likely to impose such measures which opens up strategic opportunities for Ukraine where it competes directly with the U.S.
"First of all, this is the market for corn, soybeans and wheat, more indirectly for rapeseed, sunflower oil and barley," Barva Invest said on Telegram messenger.
Ukraine produced 32 million metric tons of corn in 2023 and 26 million tons in 2024. The country exported almost 30 million tons in the 2023/24 season and is likely to ship abroad 22 million tons in 2024/25, according to the UCAB business association.
Farmers are likely to increase areas sown for corn this year as corn export prices are lucrative.
Ukraine also harvested a record 6.2 million tons of soybean in 2024 and around half of the volume could be exported this season.
Ukraine’s 2025 soybean crop could be between 5.8 and 6.2 million tons and the final volume will depend on the presence or absence of rain in May and June.