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Saudi-Mexican clash halts record oil cut deal despite Trump pressure

Published 04/10/2020, 08:26 AM
Updated 04/10/2020, 07:25 PM
© Reuters. A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq

By Vladimir Soldatkin, Alex Lawler and Rania El Gamal

MOSCOW/LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) - Top oil nations struggled to finalise record output cuts at G20 talks on Friday to boost prices slammed by the coronavirus crisis, as Saudi Arabia clashed with Mexico despite U.S. President Donald Trump's mediation offer.

OPEC led by Saudi Arabia and its allies led by Russia, which together make up the informal OPEC+ group, had forged a pact to curb crude production by 10 million barrels per day (bpd) or 10% of global supplies in marathon talks on Thursday.

Russia and OPEC said they wanted other producers including the United States and Canada to cut a further 5%.

But efforts to conclude the deal hit the buffers when Mexico said it would only cut output by a quarter of the amount demanded by OPEC+.

Measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus have destroyed demand for fuel and driven down oil prices, straining budgets of oil producers and hammering the U.S. shale industry which is more vulnerable to low prices due to its higher costs.

Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Friday Trump had offered to make extra U.S. cuts on his behalf, an unusual offer by a president who has long railed against OPEC.

Trump, who had threatened Saudi Arabia with oil tariffs if it did not fix the market's oversupply problem, said Washington would help Mexico by picking up "some of the slack" and being reimbursed later. He did not say how this would work.

But the offer was still not enough to close the deal.

Two sources familiar with the discussions said Saudi Arabia clashed with Mexico on Thursday and again on Friday, when the kingdom hosted talks of energy ministers from the Group of 20 major economies that were aimed at endorsing OPEC+ efforts.

Hours after talks ended, a G20 communique made no mention of the cuts or quantities, but only referred to "measures to ensure energy market stability". It remained unclear how the OPEC+ pact could be now finalised.

"We call on all nations to use every means at their disposal to help reduce the surplus," U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette had told the G20 talks.

Brouillette said the United States would offer supporty with a natural decline in its oil output driven by economic forces. Although not a formal cut, it still represents a major shift for by a country which has never joined OPEC in coordinated action.

Brouillette said U.S. output could fall by between 2 million and 3 million bpd by the end of 2020 - a bigger drop over a shorter period of time than officials previously indicated.

(Graphic: Crude oil prices vs U.S. crude oil stocks - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/dgkplangvbx/CrudevsOilStocks.png)

MARKET CRISIS

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said action involving others was "unavoidable", even though he acknowledged U.S. law barred American producers from joining any price cartel.

Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks on Friday that included discussing the energy market.

Oil markets were closed on Friday but prices failed to rally after Thursday's talks on cuts, because even an unprecedented cut of 15% in global supplies, as envisaged by OPEC+, would still leave a huge overhang when demand has plunged 30%.

The Mexican president said Mexico offered OPEC+ a cut of just 100,000 bpd, not the 400,000 bpd demanded, but said Trump had "very generously said to me that they were going to help us with the additional 250,000 (bpd)" of cuts.

Mexico, which has long been in a standoff with Washington over Trump's plan to build a wall between the two countries, cares less about low oil prices and more about volume because of its hedging programme, which protects it against price falls.

The crisis in the oil market has pushed Russia and Saudi Arabia to patch up differences after their acrimonious OPEC+ meeting in March where a dispute over how best to tackle falling prices led them to scrap their existing pact on production restraint that had helped balance the market for three years.

The new OPEC+ deal envisaged all members reducing output by 23%, with Saudi Arabia and Russia each cutting 2.5 million bpd and Iraq cutting over 1 million bpd in May and June.

Riyadh and Moscow agreed that their cuts would both be calculated from an October 2018 baseline of 11 million bpd, even though Saudi supplies surged to 12.3 million bpd this April.

Under the plans, OPEC+ would ease cuts to 8 million bpd from July to December and relax them further to 6 million bpd between January 2021 and April 2022, OPEC+ documents showed.

Norway and Canada, both outside OPEC+, have suggested they could cut if the deal was implemented.

UBS said the cuts were still not enough. "We still see Brent falling to $20 per barrel or lower in the second quarter of 2020," it said.

(Graphic: OPEC+ 10 million bpd cut distribution for May-June - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/xegvbqrgpqz/OPEC10mlncut.PNG)

© Reuters. A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq

Latest comments

US is the biggest oil producerprod
Then comes Saudi, Russia and Canada as number 4. If us and Canada cut the sane as Saudi and Russia we will go from 10.. to more than 18.. in cuts
nobody buys oil, so low oil prices are good for consumers. it's the stock company stock price we want, and in America, it's nowhere to be seen.
Pinocchio and his republitards need to back off and let the market sort itself out.
What happend to free market ? 🖕🏻
México hires a hedge if the oíl prices fall... Why would México lower the production?
Another weak headline attempting to sway markets.
This is an easy fix. Call Powell / The Fed will be happy to purchase all oil surpluses with the same funny money they're buying stock with. The Fed will buy the Universe!!
True
We will see 15$ per barrel sammme time ahead
OIL TO FALL BACK TO USD20 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Could-Fall-Back-To-20.html
I think price will go down in Monday, the volume of cut is not satisfying market, disappoint with no option remained.
us and Canada is expected to follow up. if they do it will go up otherwise down.
when will market open again?
it will be going down again
Mexico not cutting and Canada not cutting and the US is definitely not cutting (fake news). Crude new lows on Monday - $15-20
Maybe we could just fill the Grand Canyon
OK guys. Let’s go 10 dollars per barrel. Great
What’s that good for?
Great buying opportunity is coming. Hope I can get more XOMs in cheaper price
dead oil on Monday
Mexico has insurance on oil for this year they are on no rush
yup, at 49 USD
Could you please send a link about this subject? What you mean by saying they have insurance? Thank you!
just read the articles. Most oil producers hedge by shorting the futures market every time the pirice goes up. Except mexico didnt just do it for a few months. They hedged their entire 2020 production at 49dlls before it crashed
the US legally cant do much of anything to help Mexico cut. we would be joining the cartel which is barred by antitrust law
Big talk will make a difference.
They hv to bounce the prices up, for this they r doing the whole excersise
UBS is a big short and will get smashed if crude goes up.
Rusia wins. They always daid they will do a cut only if USA cuts as well. They didnt so vlad and his pal made this oilfake war. Now as intended USA for first time in decades will cut. Putin did it, once again
mat for the king of art of the deal. Give Trump a desert to manage 6 months later you have to import sand
nice to see Russia and Saudis cooperation, that's the most important issue here, protecting each other's economy rather then destroying in a fruitless price war.it's the only forward
I want them against the USA. I will laugh for real.
they have to make cuts ...there is nowhere to store the fuel
classic sell this news set up
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