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Oil swings higher as tight supplies overshadow demand destruction

Published 06/19/2022, 09:16 PM
Updated 06/20/2022, 02:00 PM
© Reuters. An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel

By Rowena Edwards and Rod Nickel

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices swung higher in volatile trading on Monday, as traders focused on tight supplies over slowing global economic growth.

Brent crude futures settled up $1.01, or 0.9%, at $114.13 a barrel. The global benchmark tumbled 7.3% last week for its first weekly fall in five.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude last traded up 61 cents, or 0.56%, at $110.17 in subdued trade on the Juneteenth U.S. holiday. Front-month prices slumped 9.2% last week for the first decline in eight weeks.

"We've got two really competing narratives happening," said Houston oil consultant Andrew Lipow. "One is sanctions on Russian supplies (supporting prices). On the other hand, we see the high prices resulting in some demand destruction."

Brent prices on Monday touched their lowest in a month before recovering.

"Supplies will remain tight and continue supporting high oil prices. The norm for ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent is still around the $120-mark," said PVM analyst Stephen Brennock.

"The bullish case remains far more convincing," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Western sanctions have reduced access to oil from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, which Russia calls a "special operation."

Analysts and investors said they believe a recession is more likely after the U.S. Federal Reserve approved on Wednesday the largest interest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century to contain a surge in inflation.

Similar tightening approaches by the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank last week ensued.

"Friday’s steep price fall can be seen as a delayed reaction to the concerns about recession that have already been weighing on the prices of other commodities for some time," said Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) analyst Carsten Fritsch.

While China's crude oil imports from Russia in May soared 55% from a year earlier to a record high, displacing Saudi Arabia as the top supplier, China's export quotas have resulted in declining oil product shipments.

Tight refined products markets have supported oil prices.

Analysts expect limited summer increases from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known collectively as OPEC+.

Libya's oil production has remained volatile following blockades by groups in the country's east, with its output most recently pegged at 700,000 per day.

© Reuters. An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel

Meanwhile, prospects are dwindling for Iranian sanctions relief that could result in a meaningful increase in the country's crude exports.

There has been some mitigation for tight supply with the release of strategic petroleum reserves, led by the United States. Weekly crude output in the United States, the world's top producer, has also returned to pre-pandemic levels as the rig count slowly grows.

Latest comments

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You're not even in the Cryptocurrency section!
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People and truckers still pushing 80 mph and roads are jammed. Complaining but still not slowing folks down. Yea, it's all about Biden and the democrats ... you betcha.
This is a stupid comparison. People and businesses, for the most part, have no choice but to use gas. To commute and to ship product. Business are passing the higher cost to produce to the consumer and people are incurring more debt. And YES it is about Biden and the Democrats. His administration's attack on the energy industry from the first day in office. All to appease the climate change cultists certainly had (and has) an affect on the cost of fuel and the rise in inflation. So please save us the cowardly lies that it's all Putins fault. Americans see through the lies and deflection.
bitcoin price rising suggests risk-taking is on. maybe elimination of tariffs on China will cause deflation, so extra fiscal stimuli are needed.
Demand Destruction.  To Funny, Really?  Since when?  What data supports demand destruction?
oil prices look falling down quickly all the way to $50. if true. time to short oil.
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Oil going up is not a problem the problem is oil refinery should lower their gasoline price and lower their profit based on fundamental oil should stay high but if Biden want low inflation don’t let refinery raise gasoline price
Oil is going so so so much higher. Veey easy call. Simple.
Be smart. Markwt has tons of wood to chop. When ya have admin at war with fossil fuel. Oil goes higher for a long time. 150-200 a barrel and inflation goes higher. Period!!!
expert asked market go or down ???
Supply is the key (and SPR depletion). Oil above 100$ long time from here.
lol...manipulation again by the greedy merchants. FED can only win them through quantitative easing and increasing productions to bring price down
How the oil is going up when china and india are buying from Russia in half price ,?
You have no idea about oil market and you express opinion. Russian blend is being sold -34$ on the brent. There is no tight supply only refined issues in USA. Before you express opinion be sure you know what you know.
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