Oil prices slump; potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could raise supply

Published 05/14/2025, 09:20 PM
Updated 05/15/2025, 04:09 AM
© Reuters.

Investing.com-- Oil prices fell sharply Thursday on concerns that a potential nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S. could lead to an increase in global supply.

At 04:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Brent Oil Futures dropped 3.1% to $64.06 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate WTI crude futures slumped 3.3% to $61.06 per barrel.

Both contracts declined on Wednesday, stalling a four-day rally, to slip away from the two-week high reached earlier this week. 

U.S.-Iran nuclear deal close - Trump

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the terms.

"We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace," Trump said on a tour of the Gulf, according to a pool report by AFP.

Fresh talks between Iranian and U.S. negotiators to resolve disputes over Tehran’s nuclear program ended on Sunday, with further negotiations planned.

It was thought at the time that both sides remain deeply divided, with Tehran publicly insisting on continuing its uranium enrichment, something that is seen as something the U.S. will not accept.

 

That said, NBC News reported on Thursday that Iran is prepared to sign a nuclear agreement if all economic sanctions are lifted, citing Ali Shamkhani, a top political and nuclear adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
 
The signing of a deal, and the removal of sanctions, could see Iranian oil returning to the market in force, potentially loosening the global crude supply-demand balance.
 
Prior to the reimposition of oil sanctions in 2018, Iran’s crude oil production capacity was around 3.8 million barrels a day for decades, and it is currently exporting in the neighbourhood of 1.6 million b/d.
 

IEA cuts oil demand growth forecast

Also weighing was the decision of the International Energy Agency to cut its global oil demand growth forecast for the rest of 2025, to 650,000 barrels per day, citing economic headwinds combined with record sales of electric vehicles.

That marks a slowdown from the 990,000 bpd the IEA measured for demand growth over January-March.

"Increased trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on the world economy and, by extension, oil demand," the IEA said in its May oil market report.

U.S.  oil stocks jump unexpectedly

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels in the week ending May 9, reaching a total of 441.8 million barrels. 

This build contrasts with analysts’ expectations of a 2 million barrel drawdown.

API industry data had also showed a large build of 4.3 million barrels in crude stocks last week.

This comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, known as OPEC+, has been increasing supply.

"We’ll have to wait until 1 June to see what the group decides for its output policy for July," said analysts at ING, in a note.

"Already announced supply hikes by OPEC+ should be welcomed by Trump, given his desire to see lower oil prices. However, he may want to be careful on how low prices go, given the impact it will have on the US oil industry, causing a pullback in drilling activity."

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this article.

 

 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.