Oil prices rebound after sharp drop; positioning still negative

Published 04/21/2025, 10:24 PM
Updated 04/22/2025, 08:37 AM
© Reuters.

Investing.com-- Oil prices rose Tuesday, recovering from the previous session’s sharp drop, although concerns remained given the global economic uncertainty driven by U.S. trade tariffs.

At 08:35 ET (12:35 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in June rose 1.1% to $67.01 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped 1.3% to $63.25 per barrel.

Both contracts settled more than 2% lower on Monday.

"A variety of factors put downward pressure on the market: persistent demand concerns amid tariff uncertainty; Trump’s pressure on the Fed; and progress in nuclear talks between the US and Iran," said analysts at ING, in a note.

U.S.-Iran nuclear talks could impact supply

Oil prices have bounced Tuesday, but sentiment remains weak as nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran have raised the potential of supply disruptions being eased.

The expert meetings between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to begin in Oman on Wednesday, with a follow-up session planned for Saturday to assess progress.

Progress toward a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal raised expectations that Iranian oil could return to global markets, increasing supply. 

Sentiment surrounding the crude market had already been weak after eight members of OPEC+, the group which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, had announced plans to accelerate production increases from May 1.

The cartel is set to boost output next month by 411,000 barrels per day, a faster pace than previously planned.

Trump’s clash with Fed stirs economic slowdown fears

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Friday that President Trump and his team were continuing to study whether they could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Trump on Monday reiterated his call for the Fed to reduce rates, saying the U.S. economy could slow down if the Fed does not cut interest rates immediately.

This comes after Powell said last week that the central bank was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near future, citing the possible inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties stemming from the new tariffs. 

Market participants typically view a politically influenced Fed as a risk, as it could lead to less predictable monetary policy, something that directly affects commodities like oil through currency movements and economic growth expectations.

In parallel, Trump’s escalation of trade tariffs, particularly targeting China, has amplified fears of a global economic slowdown. 

A slowdown in trade and manufacturing typically leads to reduced energy consumption, which in turn weighs on oil demand.

Negative positioning

The latest positioning data still shows market sentiment is largely negative.

Speculators sold 56,887 lots over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long of 98,951 lots. This is the smallest position since October. The bulk of the move was driven by longs liquidating.

(Ayushman Ojha contributed to this article.)

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