Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious OutperformanceFind Stocks Now

Oil drops as investors gauge big chill impact on U.S. refineries, OPEC+ output rise

Published 02/18/2021, 09:07 PM
Updated 02/19/2021, 03:10 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County

By Roslan Khasawneh

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices slid more than 1% on Friday, adding to overnight declines, on worries that refineries will take time to resume operations after the big freeze in the U.S. South, creating a gap in demand, while OPEC+ supplies were expected to rise.

"The market was ripe for a correction and signs of the power and overall energy situation starting to normalise in Texas provided the necessary trigger," said Vandana Hari, energy analyst at Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights.

Brent crude futures dropped 87 cents, or 1.4%, to $63.06 a barrel, by 0744 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 82 cents, or 1.4%, to $59.70 a barrel.

Both benchmark contracts rallied to 13-month highs on Thursday driven by the historic freeze in U.S. southern states. While analysts estimate the extreme cold has shut in as much as one-third of U.S. crude production, attention has now turned to the impact on refiners.

The lack of demand from Texan refiners will likely lead to builds in crude stocks over coming weeks, even though around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. oil output has been shut, ANZ Research said in a note.

Citi analysts said in a note that some U.S. refineries might bring forward about 500,000 bpd of maintenance work normally scheduled for the spring over next month, ahead of the summer driving season.

The front-month WTI price curve dipped into a shallow contango as low as minus 4 cents on Friday, a market structure in which near-month barrels are cheaper than those in later months, implying current oversupply.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

"The small contango...likely signals market expectations for U.S. crude production and supply (including imports) to recover faster than the refining capacity shuttered in Texas by the deep freeze," said Hari.

U.S. crude stockpiles fell more than expected in the week to Feb. 12, before the freeze, with inventories down by 7.3 million barrels to 461.8 million barrels, their lowest since March, the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday.

Attention is also turning to a looming increase in crude oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+.

OPEC+ sources told Reuters the group's producers are likely to ease curbs on supply after April given the recovery in prices.

The United States on Thursday said it was ready to talk to Iran about both nations returning to a 2015 agreement that aimed to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

While the thawing relations could raise the prospect of reversing sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration, analysts did not expect Iranian oil sanctions to be lifted anytime soon.

"It's going to be a long road," said Hari referring to the U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Latest comments

The news about OPEC isn’t new. When they decided to keep the previous cuts in place, they said those cuts would be in effect through March. So, OPEC is simply following its plan that was announced in January, but Reuters would have people believe this is new in their report that is made to sound like it’s new and dramatic. Otherwise, they would say Opec is expected to raise supply “as expected and previously announced.”
Republican incompetence laid bare once again. Can't even cope with a bit of cold weather. And cruz escapes to Mexico in the middle of it. Nobody in their right mind will ever vote for them again
the child sat in the middle of the most powerful room in the world reading Dr. Sues books. If that didn't convince his jerry springer supporters to not vote for him nothing will.
Its got to be the oil futures and that still doesnt make sense. But, either way the price will go up under Biden. Secure your seat belts, return your seat to the up right position and stow your tray table. Oh, and dont forget how many tons of oil those cruise ships hold..... its just a matter of time before we see $70-$80 oil😉
Youre thinking about biden while forgetting millions of other bearish factors in the mean time.
everything changed in less than 24 hours...wow.
they will always find a reason to wash your brains)
There is no reasoning in that. If refineries can’t recover, oil prices should be on the rise.
with all the snow plows running non-stop right now, how can there be a lack of demand?
huge winter heating demamd
It has to do with the fact that a refinery will be unable to draw fuel from oil stock piles. Stock piles increase = increase in supply which leads to price drop.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.