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Grain futures - Weekly outlook: March 12 - 16

Published 03/11/2012, 10:26 AM
Updated 03/11/2012, 10:26 AM
Investing.com - U.S. grain futures ended the week higher on Friday, shrugging off pressure from a broadly stronger U.S. dollar as traders focused on the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly report on global grain supplies.

Agricultural commodity traders shrugged off a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and developments surrounding Greece’s debt crisis, instead focusing on market fundamentals.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybeans for May delivery settled at USD13.3762 a bushel by close of trade Friday. On the week, prices gained 0.58%, the fourth consecutive weekly advance.

Earlier Friday, prices rose to USD13.5538 a bushel, the highest since September 19, before retracing gains on profit taking.

In its Supply & Demand Estimate Report published Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that global soybean production was expected to total 245.07 million tons in the current marketing season, down from 264 million harvested a year earlier.

The 19-million-ton drop is the biggest year-over-year decline since at least 1965.

The downward revision reflected lower production in major South American soy growers, Brazil and Argentina.

Combined soybean production in Brazil and Argentina, the two biggest growers after the U.S., will fall to 115 million tons from 124.5 million last year and 127 million forecast in December.

Agribusiness financial service provider Rabobank said in a report following the USDA data that the declining production in South America “will continue to give soybeans further upside.”

The bank added that, “The combined production cuts were more aggressive than we expected.”

South America is a major soybean exporter and competes with the U.S. for business on the global market. A downbeat crop outlook there could increase demand for U.S. supplies.
 
Soybean futures have rallied almost 11% since the beginning of February, as market sentiment has been dominated by concerns over distressed crops in major South American soy growers and on hopes demand from top consumer China will remain robust in the near-term.

Meanwhile, wheat for May delivery settled at USD6.4088 a bushel by close of trade on Friday. Despite Friday’s 1% gain, prices still lost 4.84% on the week.

Wheat prices came under heavy selling pressure earlier in the week, losing almost 6% in the four sessions leading up to Friday as favorable weather in the U.S. Great Plains region eased concerns over crop prospects.

But prices regained strength on Friday after the USDA lowered its forecast for global wheat stockpiles in the 2011-12 marketing season by 1.7% to 209.58 million metric tons.

The USDA said that higher U.S. wheat exports will push down domestic supplies to 825 million bushels, 2.4% lower from last month’s projection of 845 million.

Market participants also noted some bargain buying from traders reluctant to bet that prices would fall further after futures moved into oversold territory.

Wheat futures have declined nearly 9% since the beginning of February on the view world supplies are ample to meet global demand for the grain.
 
Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for May delivery settled at USD6.4275 a bushel by close of trade on Friday. Earlier Friday, prices rose to a three-day high of USD6.5188.

Despite Friday’s strong performance, corn futures retreated 1.73% on the week.

Prices advanced after the USDA said global corn stockpiles were expected to fall to a five-year low of 124.53 million metric tons, compared to February’s estimate of 125.35 million.  

Despite adverse weather conditions, Brazil’s crop was expected to be 62 million tons, up 1.6% from last month, while Argentina’s output forecast was left unchanged at 22 million tons.

U.S. exports will total 1.7 billion bushels, unchanged from last month’s forecast and down from 1.835 billion a year earlier, the USDA said.

Global consumption will reach 869.49 million tons, up from 867.59 million estimated last month and more than 844.35 million tons last year, the USDA said. It would be the third straight year world consumption exceeds output.

China, the second-largest producer, will harvest 191.75 million tons, unchanged from last month. The country will import 4 million tons, unchanged from last month’s estimate and up from and 980,000 tons in the previous year, according to the report.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.

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