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Gold up 1% on Week after Fencing With U.S. Yields, Dollar

CommoditiesApr 09, 2021 03:17PM ET
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By Barani Krishnan - Gold prices slid on Friday but still ended the week up 1% as the yellow metal emerged partially victorious from its fencing duels with U.S. bond yields and the dollar, which were sluggish most of the week from mixed readings on inflation.

Benchmark gold futures on New York’s Comex settled down $13.60, or 0.8%, at $1,744.80 an ounce. For the week, however, it rose 1.05%.

The spot price of gold was down $12.67, or 0.7%, at $1,742.95 by 3:00 PM ET (19:00 GMT). For the week, spot gold was up 0.8%. Moves in spot gold are integral to fund managers, who sometimes rely more on it than futures for direction.

Both spot and gold futures broke above $1,750 on Thursday, smashing the key resistance the first time in six weeks, as bond yields and the dollar retreated from their recent highs.

On Friday, the benchmark yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note hovered at 1.66% versus its 14-month high of 1.77% hit on March 30.

The Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against the euro and five other major currencies, was at 9216, versus the 93.13 level it scaled on.

Technical charts for both Comex and spot gold indicate a potential return to $1,800 pricing if the yellow metal reprises this week’s highs at next week’s close.

“A weekly close above $1,755 would really confirm potential for the next target of $1,780-$1,835 and possibly beyond,” said Sunil Kumar Dixit of SK Dixit Charting in Kolkata, India.

But some think yields and the dollar could also rebound and cut short the gold rally.

“With the dollar and Treasury yields on the rise, gold is once again out of favour today, although it is still on track for a rare weekly gain,” said Sophie Griffiths, markets analyst for online broker OANDA.

“With expectations of a strong US economic recovery, there’s a good chance that the move higher in gold will be short-lived.”

Gold had a scorching run in mid-2020 when it rose from March lows of under $1,500 to reach record highs of nearly $2,100 by August, responding to inflationary concerns sparked by the first U.S. fiscal relief of $3 trillion approved for the coronavirus pandemic.

Breakthroughs in vaccine development since November, along with optimism of economic recovery, however, forced gold to close 2020 trading at just below $1,900.

Since the start of this year, gold has had more headwinds as the dollar and bond yields often surged on the argument that U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic could exceed expectations, leading to fears of spiraling inflation as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at near zero.

Gold’s fall from grace in 2021 is more remarkable if considered from the perspective of the additional Covid-19 relief of $1.9 trillion passed by Congress in March, and the Biden administration’s plan next for an infrastructure spending bill of $2.2 trillion.

The dollar debasement from these stimulus measures should have sent gold rallying as an inflation hedge. But the opposite has often happened.

Gold up 1% on Week after Fencing With U.S. Yields, Dollar

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Mehdi Captain Music
Mehdi Captain Music Apr 09, 2021 5:30PM ET
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