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Gold ticks up amid recurring weak China data, Fed rate hike uncertainty

Published 09/14/2015, 12:24 PM
Updated 09/14/2015, 01:03 PM
Gold moved off monthly lows from last week, posting modest gains on Monday

Investing.com -- Gold futures inched up on Monday amid a relatively flat dollar, as the timing of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the longstanding Chinese equities crisis remained in focus.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery wavered between $1,102.60 and $1,109.60 an ounce on thin volume, before closing at $1,109.30 an ounce, up 6.00 or 0.55% on the session. Trading was light on Monday due to Rosh Hashanah, the celebration of the Jewish New Year. Gold futures have now closed higher on four of the last six sessions. Previously, the precious metal closed in the red on 12 of 14 sessions through September 7, amid growing sentiment for a delayed rate hike. Last week, gold touched down to a monthly low following a sharp sell-off of more than 1.6% on Wednesday. Still, gold has remained fairly steady over the last month only losing approximately 1% in value since Aug. 14.

Gold likely gained support at $1,098.20, the low from Sept. 11 and was met with resistance at $1,140.40, the high from Sept. 2.

Investors await the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) highly-anticipated two-day meeting starting on Wednesday, where the U.S. central bank could raise Federal Funds Rate for the first time in nearly a decade. The Fed's benchmark rate, which banks use to lend to other institutions on overnight loans, has remained at its current level between zero and 0.25% since December, 2008.

In recent months, Fed chair Janet Yellen has indicated that the FOMC will take a "data-driven approach," to policy normalization, placing a close eye on the strength of the economy and labor markets, as it weighs the decision. In August, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 173,000, below consensus estimates of a 223,000 gain. The unemployment rate, however, fell to 5.1%, its lowest level since April, 2008, prior to the start of the Financial Crisis.

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Gold, which is not attached to dividends or interest rates, struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in periods of rising rates.

The Fed also reportedly remains concerned that weakness in the Chinese economy could have a spillover effect onto the global markets at large, possibly forcing it to keep the Fed Funds Rate at its current zero-bound level. Over the weekend, the Chinese government released disappointing data, illustrating that factory production and fixed-asset investment last month were both weaker than expected. The latest data provide further indications that the world's second-largest economy might fail to meet its annual growth target expectation of 7% for 2015.

China is the world's largest producer of gold and the second-largest consumer behind India.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, gained more than 0.10% on Monday to an intraday high of 95.62, before falling back to 95.39 in U.S. afternoon trading. Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.

Silver for December delivery fell 0.125 or 0.86% to 14.380 an ounce.

Copper for December delivery plunged 0.0048 or 1.94% to 2.406 a pound.

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