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Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: February 13 - 17

CommoditiesFeb 12, 2017 05:32AM ET
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© Reuters. Oil rises on widespread OPEC deal compliance - Oil futures finished sharply higher on Friday, as traders cheered signs that global supply was beginning to tighten in wake of a planned agreement by major crude producers to cut output.

But prices barely logged a weekly gain, pressured by expectations for further growth in U.S. crude production.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for April delivery jumped $1.07, or about 2%, to settle at $56.70 a barrel by close of trade Friday.

Despite Friday's strong gains, London-traded Brent futures scored a loss of 11 cents, or around 0.2%, on the week.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March rose 86 cents, or about 1.6%, to end at $53.86 a barrel by close of trade.

For the week, New York-traded oil futures gained 3 cents, or less than 0.1%.

OPEC has delivered more than 90% of pledged oil output curbs in January, according to figures the exporter group uses to monitor its supply, making a strong start to implementation of its first production cut in eight years.

Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the deal has fallen to 29.92 million barrels per day last month. That amounts to 92% compliance, far higher than the initial 60% compliance with a 2009 OPEC deal.

January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by a combined 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months.

The deal, if carried out as planned, should reduce global supply by about 2%.

OPEC is scheduled to publish its first assessment of its January production based on the secondary sources in its monthly oil market report on Monday.

Futures have been trading in a narrow range around the low-to-mid-$50s over the past month as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major global producers and expectations of a rebound in U.S. shale production.

Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by 8 last week, the 14th gain in 15 weeks.

That brought the total count to 591, the most since November 2015.

The data raised concerns that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for March rose 1.9 cents, or nearly 1.3% to $1.589 a gallon, the highest since January 17. It ended up about 2.3% for the week.

March heating oil added 2.4 cents, or 1.5%, to finish at $1.665 a gallon. For the week, the fuel gained less than 0.1%.

Natural gas futures for March delivery sank 10.7 cents, or almost 3.5%, to an 11-week low of $3.034 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly loss of around 1%.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye out for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties monthly report on Monday to gauge global supply and demand levels.

Traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 13

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.

Later in the day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its monthly update on domestic oil and natural-gas shale output.

Tuesday, February 14

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, February 15

The EIA is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, February 16

The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, February 17

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: February 13 - 17

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