Bank of America Securities sees near-term weakness in Brent; upside in gold

Published 06/03/2025, 07:17 AM
Updated 06/03/2025, 07:20 AM
© Reuters

Investing.com - Bank of America has adjusted its commodity portfolio strategy for the next one-month horizon.

With the recent de-escalation in tariffs, both consumer and market sentiment showed warming signs and markets shifted focus on the tailwinds from the “Big Beautiful Bill”, with first quarter gross domestic product in the U.S. surprising to the upside in the latest revision.

“Even with the front-loading of consumption and inventory purchases ahead of the tariff implementation, our econ team does not see consumption falling off the cliff in 2H 2025. Consumption may stay resilient as long as labor income remains above inflation, given relatively healthy consumer balance sheets at present,” analysts at Bank of America Securities said, in a note dated June 2. 

In relative terms over a one-month holding horizon, the bank is overweight soybean meal, copper, silver, and gold, as well as being underweight WTI, Brent, gasoline, natural gas lean hogs, corn, wheat, and cotton. 

The bank’s model predicts positive roll yields for WTI, Brent, lean hogs, sugar, and copper. It predicts negative roll yields for live cattle, soybeans, soybean oil, cotton, nickel, zinc, and lead.

Over the next month, the bank expects positive excess returns for copper, and projects negative excess returns for WTI and Brent.

Over a 6-month horizon, the bank’s model projects positive spot returns for energy, livestock, agriculture commodities and most metals, and positive excess returns for Brent, gasoline and gasoil, heating oil, nickel and silver and soybean meal. 

It projects negative excess returns for WTI, live cattle, soybean oil and aluminum.



 

 

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