On Monday, JPMorgan reaffirmed their Neutral rating on Garmin Ltd . (NYSE:GRMN) with a steady price target of $260.00. The firm noted a significant increase in Garmin Connect app downloads for March, which rose by 12.4% month-over-month, outpacing the 18.9% decline observed in February. This growth exceeded the historical average sequential increase of 6.3% typically seen from February to March. Additionally, on a year-over-year basis, downloads in March surged by 23.2%, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of year-over-year growth. According to InvestingPro data, this growth aligns with Garmin’s impressive 20.4% revenue growth over the last twelve months, supported by robust gross profit margins of 58.7%.
The quarterly perspective also revealed positive trends, with Garmin Connect downloads in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) falling by 12.4% quarter-over-quarter, which is more favorable compared to the historical average sequential decrease of 17.2% from the fourth quarter to the first quarter. Furthermore, when examining year-over-year data, the app experienced a 20.1% rise in downloads for 1Q25 compared to the same period last year, continuing a streak of nine consecutive quarters of year-over-year increases. InvestingPro reveals that four analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, suggesting growing confidence in Garmin’s performance.
JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that the download trends for Garmin Connect in March and February have led to better-than-anticipated download numbers for the first quarter of the year. This performance is seen as potentially bolstering revenue forecasts for Garmin’s Fitness and Outdoor segments. The firm’s own estimates for these segments in 1Q25 stand at $816 million, which would represent a 30% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 15% increase year-over-year. These figures are slightly above the consensus estimates of $779 million, indicating a 33% quarter-over-quarter drop but a 10% year-over-year rise.
The sustained growth in app downloads could be a positive indicator for Garmin’s engagement and market presence within the fitness and outdoor sectors. JPMorgan’s evaluation reflects an expectation that the company’s recent app trends may support its revenue outlook for the early part of 2025.
In other recent news, Garmin Ltd. reported a fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.41, surpassing analyst expectations by about 22%. Despite this strong performance, BofA Securities revised Garmin’s stock price target to $175 from $185 while maintaining an Underperform rating. The adjustment reflects a more conservative outlook on Garmin’s growth potential, with a reduced 2025 adjusted EPS forecast from $9.15 to $8.55. In another development, Garmin’s G3000 PRIME integrated flight deck has been selected by Pilatus Aircraft Ltd for their PC-7 MKX military training aircraft, marking its first entry into the military training market.
Additionally, Garmin has partnered with Clippd to integrate golf performance data from its smartwatches, enhancing game improvement strategies for golfers. Garmin also announced a collaboration with Harvard University and the University of Oxford on a study linking sleep and exercise to happiness, leveraging data from its smartwatches. Moreover, Garmin is set to retrofit Airbus H130 helicopters with its GFC 600H Helicopter Flight Control System, aiming to enhance safety and reduce pilot workload. These developments reflect Garmin’s ongoing efforts to expand its technology offerings across various sectors.
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