Graphic Packaging price target lowered to $25 by RBC on downtime

Published 06/18/2025, 11:17 AM
Graphic Packaging price target lowered to $25 by RBC on downtime

RBC Capital lowered its price target on Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) to $25.00 from $26.00 on Monday, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, the company appears undervalued at its current price of $21.58, trading at an attractive P/E ratio of 10.5x.

The firm cited additional downtime the company is taking to reduce excess inventory as the primary reason for the adjustment. RBC noted that Graphic Packaging continues to experience softer volumes, especially in its Food segment, although its Beverage business is showing stronger performance.

RBC adjusted its EBITDA estimates for Graphic Packaging to $330 million for the second quarter, with full-year projections of $1.45 billion for 2025 and $1.55 billion for 2026. The firm’s analysis followed meetings with Graphic Packaging’s CFO Steve Scherger and IR Mark Connelly in Toronto and Montreal.

Despite the lower price target, RBC maintained its Outperform rating, highlighting expectations that free cash flow will increase to $700-800 million in 2026. The firm indicated that this cash flow would likely be directed primarily toward stock buybacks.

RBC characterized the 20% year-to-date pullback in Graphic Packaging’s stock as a "strong buying opportunity," even as the company faces near-term challenges with overall second-quarter volumes expected to be flat compared to previous expectations of a 2% decline. The stock is currently trading near its 52-week low of $20.86, with InvestingPro analysis revealing 8 additional key insights about the company’s financial health and market position. Discover the complete analysis and Fair Value estimate in the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to subscribers.

In other recent news, Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.51, which fell short of the $0.59 forecast. The company also reported revenue of $2.1 billion, slightly below the expected $2.15 billion. Following the earnings miss, Citi analyst Anthony Pettinari adjusted the price target for Graphic Packaging to $23.00, down from the previous $23.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. UBS analysts also began coverage of Graphic Packaging with a Neutral rating, highlighting the company’s shift from capital expenditure to focusing on share repurchases. UBS projects an increase in free cash flow for the company, expecting it to rise to approximately $750 million in 2026.

Graphic Packaging announced significant amendments to its corporate governance structure, including the elimination of supermajority voting provisions, which aim to simplify the company’s voting process. The changes were approved at the Annual Meeting and became effective immediately. During the meeting, shareholders elected Class III directors and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the year. Additionally, a non-binding advisory vote approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers, and a stockholder proposal advocating for the annual election of directors was also passed. These developments reflect a high level of participation from shareholders, with a significant majority in favor of the proposed changes.

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