Tuesday, Cantor Fitzgerald resumed coverage of Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) with a neutral stance and a price target of $305.00, adding to the diverse range of analyst targets between $185 and $400. The firm’s analyst, Carter Gould, provided an outlook on the biopharmaceutical company, acknowledging the mixed narrative surrounding its prospects. According to InvestingPro data, six analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, suggesting growing confidence in the company’s near-term performance. Gould highlighted Amgen’s obesity treatment, MariTide, as a topic of intense debate, while describing the company’s core business as lackluster with limited growth expected due to loss of exclusivity (LOEs) issues anticipated between 2025 and 2028. Despite these concerns, InvestingPro analysis shows Amgen maintains strong fundamentals with a 68.7% gross profit margin and healthy revenue growth of 18.6% over the last twelve months.
The analyst expressed a cautious view on MariTide’s ability to add significant value to Amgen’s stock in the near to medium term, specifically before phase 3 data expected around 2027. Cantor Fitzgerald attributes a 75% probability of success to MariTide, with potential sales reaching $10 billion. However, the forecast suggests MariTide will capture a modest market share in the obesity sector due to strong competition, its limited differentiation in mechanism of action (MOA) and dosing frequency, and the entry of larger competitors.
Gould also pointed out upcoming data releases from competitors such as Lilly’s orforglipron and retatrutide, which could further emphasize the challenges faced by MariTide. Despite the market’s current valuation of MariTide at approximately $45-55 per share, and Cantor Fitzgerald’s model placing it around $40 per share, the analyst anticipates that maintaining this valuation through the competitive landscape will be a best-case scenario for Amgen through 2025-2026.
While the focus remains on MariTide, Cantor Fitzgerald suggests that other segments of Amgen’s business, which include drugs like Repatha, Evenity, Blincyto, Tezspire, Uplizna, and Imdelltra, may be performing better than perceived. This assessment is supported by InvestingPro data showing strong financial health metrics and a robust free cash flow yield. Nevertheless, the firm forecasts a modest growth rate for Amgen, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% from 2025 to 2028, which aligns with a valuation of $245-250 per share excluding MariTide. This outlook is slightly more optimistic than the consensus estimate of a 1.8% CAGR provided by Visible Alpha. For deeper insights into Amgen’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which provides detailed analysis of the company’s financial health and market position.
In other recent news, Amgen has reported several key developments that may interest investors. The company announced that its Phase 3 DeLLphi-304 clinical trial for IMDELLTRA in small cell lung cancer patients has met its primary endpoint, showing a statistically significant improvement in overall survival. This novel immunotherapy is already approved in the U.S. for extensive-stage SCLC patients, and Amgen plans to present more detailed data soon. Additionally, the FDA has approved Amgen’s drug Uplizna for IgG4-related disease, marking it as the first drug approved for this condition. This development is expected to provide a new revenue stream, with projected sales of $516 million by 2025.
Piper Sandler has maintained its Overweight rating on Amgen with a $329 price target, citing the potential of the new drug MariTide in obesity management despite some concerns about its tolerability. UBS has also adjusted its price target for Amgen to $319 while maintaining a Neutral rating, noting Amgen’s robust performance and the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on its financials. Meanwhile, Citi analysts have reiterated a Neutral rating with a $295 price target, emphasizing the potential impact of upcoming MariTide data on Amgen’s stock. These updates reflect ongoing confidence in Amgen’s diverse pipeline and strategic advancements in the biotechnology sector.
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