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Chris Ciovacco

Ciovacco Capital Management
  • Analysis & Opinion

Chris Ciovacco's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of Chris Ciovacco's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

Fed Policy: Long and Variable Lags In early June, we examined the performance of stocks relative to bonds to see what we could learn about the soft versus hard landing question. At that time, the...
The weekly Ichimoku Cloud chart below for the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE:JNK) shows a trend that rolled over in early 2022, formed a base in 2H 2022, and resumed an uptrend in 2023....
The fundamentals and technicals continue to support the case for a demographically driven secular bull market in stocks that could last until 2034. One of the best ways to test the base case is to...
Demographics: A Triple Economic Boom Is Coming
By Chris Ciovacco - Jul 28, 20232
In the next 10-15 years, the financial markets and economy will be significantly impacted by three major forces: (1) Millennials, (2) Generation Z, and (3) artificial intelligence. These forces could...
SPY’S Strength MattersThe odds associated with all investments (ETFs, individual stocks, bonds, etc.) are impacted by the market's tolerance for risk, which can be monitored numerous ways,...
Stocks: The Longer-Term View
By Chris Ciovacco - Jul 11, 2023
If the S&P 500 made a cyclical low in October 2022 in the context of a secular bull market, when we look back in 2-3 years, ETF leaders will most likely come from the technology sector, with a...
3 Charts Say 2018 Was A Major Equity Market Bottom
By Chris Ciovacco - Feb 11, 20201
RECENT SIGNAL SEEN NEAR 2002 AND 2009 LOWSAs shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) recently completed a bullish turn that has only taken place two previous times...
Evidence Of A Broad Swing In Global Stock Momentum
By Chris Ciovacco - Dec 17, 2019
INSTITUTIONS DRIVE MARKETS Institutions typically lead in the stock market and retail investors follow, which is why equity-based mutual funds and ETFs have seen record outflows in 2019 – but...
Investors Run From Stocks At Record Pace
By Chris Ciovacco - Dec 10, 2019
BIGGEST WITHDRAWALS ON RECORD There is a lot of relevant information in the text below from a Wall Street Journal article dated December 8, 2019: “Investors have pulled $135.5 billion from U.S....
Rare Equity-Fund Outflows  
By Chris Ciovacco - Dec 03, 2019
STOCK PERFORMANCE FOLLOWING SIMILAR MOVESRetail investors have erred on the side of caution in 2019. From a recent MarketWatch article: Analysts said the “extremely cautious...