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Chris Ciovacco

  • Analysis & Opinion

Chris Ciovacco's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of Chris Ciovacco's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

RECENT SIGNAL SEEN NEAR 2002 AND 2009 LOWSAs shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) recently completed a bullish turn that has only taken place two previous times...
INSTITUTIONS DRIVE MARKETS Institutions typically lead in the stock market and retail investors follow, which is why equity-based mutual funds and ETFs have seen record outflows in 2019 – but...
BIGGEST WITHDRAWALS ON RECORD There is a lot of relevant information in the text below from a Wall Street Journal article dated December 8, 2019: “Investors have pulled $135.5 billion from U.S....
STOCK PERFORMANCE FOLLOWING SIMILAR MOVESRetail investors have erred on the side of caution in 2019. From a recent MarketWatch article: Analysts said the “extremely cautious...
Highest In A DecadeAccording to Lipper and The Wall Street Journal, money market balances were basically identical on October 30, 2019 and March 25, 2009. It is easy to understand how money...
SIMILARITIES TO 2011-2012 AND 2015-2016 Over the past ten months, numerous developments (breadth thrusts, asset class behavior, sentiment, etc.) have told us to remain open to a...
This Is What A Major Trend Reversal Looks Like The three periods shown below produced an average peak-to-trough loss of over 50%. Thus, it is prudent to understand some of the common characteristics...
Ratracements Speak To Odds If we are to believe the market’s rally off the December 2018 low is the last hurrah, we would expect to see some damage on the normal retracement front. Using the...
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index came in well below expectations on October 1, 2019 sparking renewed fear of a recession. Given the Manufacturing Index was strong in August 2018 and plunged...
Rollover Process 2007-2008 Since every trade has a buyer and a seller, price action in the financial markets is determined by the conviction of buyers relative to the conviction of sellers. In the...