James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion - Page 4
President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but...
The long-run expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained above 7% for a third straight month in January, ticking higher vs. December’s estimate. The revised forecast, based on three...
January was kind to the major asset classes, marking a strong rebound from a rough month in December. Across-the-board gains last month suggest the year is on a positive trajectory for markets. But...
Several risk factors that could end the bond market’s party, but for the moment US fixed-income markets are having a good year so far, based on prices through Thursday’s close (Jan. 30).
Using a set...
It’s been a good year so far for the momentum factor. That’s hardly surprising given that momentum was red hot in 2024. Momentum, it seems, still has momentum.
Using a set of ETF proxies to track US...
Economic output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase at a solid rate in this week’s initial GDP estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Thursday’s report from the government (Jan. 29)...
And just like that, the formerly high-flying US tech sector is on the defensive. If you blinked, you missed it.
Anxiety about the competitive threat from Chinese artificial intelligence lab DeepSeek...
Investors this week will be keenly watching how or if the Federal Reserve and the bond market cooperate with Donald Trump’s order for lower interest rates. Although the central bank is unlikely to...
In President Trump’s first week in office, he issued a blitz of executive orders, but perhaps his most ambitious statement to date is his claim yesterday that he would order the Federal Reserve to...
Is this the calm before the storm? Or has the danger passed?
The bond market is focused on news and data in the days and weeks ahead that will provide context for answering these key questions....