James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion - Page 2
In a striking reversal of fortunes, equities in developed markets ex-US are now leading the major asset classes in 2025 while US shares are posting a modest loss year to date, based on a set of ETFs...
The rollout of President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China has roiled expectations for US economic activity in the first quarter.
Prior to what is shaping up to be a global tariff war,...
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell in February, sliding to an annualized 7.1% vs. the previous month’s 7.4%. The downward revised forecast follows several...
Most of the major asset classes rallied in February, based on a set of ETFs. The downside exceptions: US stocks and a broad measure of commodities. Otherwise, global markets posted were broadly...
Sticky inflation risk is still a threat for the bond market, but concern that the US economy is slowing has become the main factor driving Treasury yields lower recently.
The US 10-year yield...
As markets try to look through the blizzard of policy changes flowing out of Washington, the crowd has shifted its preferences considerably in recent weeks based on a sector lens. Using a set of ETFs...
Recent headlines appear to have shaken investor sentiment. It’s premature to read too much into a few days of weaker-than-expected survey numbers. More importantly, the latest data indicate that the...
The central bank’s job is never easier, but in the current climate, it’s unusually tricky.
In addition to the usual challenges that complicate real-time monetary policy decisions, the Federal Reserve...
The year so far is shaping up to be quite different from 2024 in terms of leaders and laggards for the major asset classes. Global equities ex-US are the leaders, along with a broad measure of...
At a time of increased uncertainty about inflation, the relatively elevated real yields available in inflation-indexed Treasuries offer a partial antidote of certainty for anxious investors.
Using...