Ashraf Laidi

Quickly summarizing why the second straight quarterly GDP contraction does not qualify as recession is due to the negative inventories factor, which not only can be revised higher later, but mainly...

Quickly summarizing why the 2nd straight quarterly GDP contraction does not qualify as a recession is due to the negative inventories factor, which not only can be revised higher later but mainly...

The ECB has officially abandoned negative interest rates, all three main US indices regained their 55-DMA, and the ratio of growth/value stocks broke above its 8-month trendline resistance. Can we...

As growth concerns clash with further tightening from the Fed, all popular measures of the US yield curve are inverting, except for one—the 10-year/3-month spread, which, although flattening...

Is the US already in a recession? Will July's Fed rate hike be the final rate hike of 2022? Will the Fed follow up with one more rate hike in September, and more in Q4 or will it pause in Q4, before...

The final week of the month and the quarter is delivering its share of negative US economic surprise, to the extent of moving growth worries nearer to inflation fears—at least in the eyes of the bond...

Is 3500 on the S&P 500 inevitable? And what's beyond it? Another 4% from here and we reach 3500, coinciding with the 200-week MA as well as the 50% retracement of the rise from the March 2020...

US inflation hit a new 41-year high of 8.6%, bond yields surged back towards their 4-year high of 2.0%, so why did gold did rally $50 to $1870? Those who say “gold is a hedge against inflation,...

You must've seen May's monthly charts, highlighting the wild Doji candles for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, where the open price for the month equaled the close, with as much as...

Here are charts capturing the weakness in asset portfolios, business surveys, and consumer sentiment alike. The simultaneous decline in various Fed and non-Fed business surveys (top panel), falling...