How are we going to store wind energy, BP/SHEL failed miserably at producing as promised. Electricity is a use it or lose it proposition, you can't pick it up off the shelf at Kroger. There aren't enough batteries that can be produced with current minerals.
Eagle Ford/Austin chalk, is growing with an estimated 8.5B bls. See the latest # of horizontal rigs. If Kinder Morgan or Energy Transfer want to add more pipe, they will.
I do use CAPE mixed with current interest rates. ZIRP or tightening. CAPE failed once in the 70's with roller coaster interest rates yet CAPE had it's highest reading ever in December 1999 (Greenspan) and it's lowest in March 2009 (Bernanke), we know what happened. Watch the Fed.
Will the Arab States really cede power to Brazil and Argentina where China has a huge presence? I don't believe a cut in production is coming. The EU States may work separate contracts. Do they ever agree? Has there been any progress at EU refineries?