Do you follow refineries and crack spreads, VLO is down and appears slowing. Natty has gone down; typical shoulder season? Qatar? As always, thank you for your work.
A terminal rate of 5% will not get us above PCE. I do believe there will be a pause after January also. Do you have any charts showing momentum shifts with VIX/VVIX? Thank you for your work! Happy Thanksgiving.
Shorter term, M2 is flat lining (FRED.com St Luis Fed). Earnings numbers have been coming down. CAPE ratio is at 27.42 (Ycharts) so IMO, the S&P has a further drop. GDP EX-UKRAINE lifted us +/- 2%, GDPnow had us down to +.9%. Current concern is the Mississippi River and diesel. Fresh crops aren't moving, trains and trucks use diesel.
Cap-ex is a difficult call right now. Open up capital and it may swing. Can we please just get ANWR started? If Congress unleashes ANWR, we (U.S.) become the oil super power! Jones act will starve the North east of critical heating oil. Repeal it.
Hoping IWM resilience holds. Took my first position in SHY and hope to add more. Are you watching the short end? Thoughts? IWM, long 1 $170 C 10/28/22. Thank you!
While demand destruction was so close, man once again raises his noisy hand, interfering with what should be "the silent hand of the economy" (Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations) work within the economy in natural order. Had this approach been taken, including easing of EPA regulations, oil would be at $65, IMO.
March 2020 was full on ZIRP, dropping money from helicopters was par for the day. M2 needs a major drawdown and we will probably hit financial crisis. Prices need to come down from housing to vehicles. IMO, we're no where close.
Thank you! We're very close to selling our puts. IWM seems now to be holding up better and making it difficult to short with conviction. Q's & SPX are short as XLE is a bright spot lending support. Short Financials via FAZ calls. Thoughts on IWM?
Intentional. Was SPR drained to save a party in the midterms? Intentional. Chevron pumping in Venezuela? Intentional. Geopolitics, intent is always present. "There is but one thing that creates inflation" ... Milton Friedman.
Fast wave 4? It looks incomplete but, yesterday day I put on a 381 - 386 call spread. MACD is a positive. However, I'm net bearish. Expiry is 10/07/22. Cost total was $0.67 ($67.00) per contract limited @ $386. Best case, I make $433, worst case I loose only $67. Best to all.