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Sunshine All The Time

Joined: 05/08/20


Comments by Sunshine All The Time
S&P 500 Futures Sep 27, 2022 12:05AM ET
Probably still chops, better (more liquid) markets to trade right now, protect your capital
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 11:05PM ET
Distribution, the most crowded currency trade in history will take time to move, and needs retail to sell stocks and move to cash
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 11:05PM ET
Distribution, the most crowded currency trade in history will take time to move, and needs retail to sell stocks and move to cash
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 9:05PM ET
‘Fair and balanced’ ha
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 8:05PM ET
both responses, yes, if we collapse, rates will also collapse, thats why bonds are an amazing entry and hedge here. Since a lot of things show we are priced at terminal rateboth responses, yes, if we collapse, rates will also collapse, thats why bonds are an amazing entry and hedge here. Since a lot of things show we are priced at terminal rate
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
If you think the game is unfair, find a new game…currencies, bonds, commodities, crypto, all tradeable….let these guys devour themselves and youll start to see clean setups, its more reliant on retail option buying than many ppl realize, good luck to both sides. Ppl always ask why im not trading equities everyday, theres a reason…
US 30Y T-Bond Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
This is likely the level, talk about a ponzi with this timing
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
And finally, this is not a ‘call’ but take an objective look at rates and bond funds, what do we do when those bottom? Like what if bonds bottomed this week, what happens? Idk, just thoughts
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
Ok, its rough in here so a bit more color. Institutions trade different, Friday the signals said buy the close, they pumped open and got out after ES signaled down, into close today was a sell signal that cant be traded against, so institutions are short or hedged into tmr. HERES the issue, institutions are not supposed to get whiplashed this much, so if we rally tmr after such a solid sell signal, they will likely take it out on the MMs and hit some pain points, 2 traps is manageable, 3 in a row tends to make them a little upset, good luck
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
DAX should also wake up soon, both technical and fundamental, gas is flowing, which is bullish news, so the media peobably wont mention it
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
the 2Y has priced MORE than the planned hikes announced. And we’re north of 4% on a terminal rate, there hasnt been a fundamental shift in habits to drive inflation above 4% for a sustained (3-5 year period), this was manufacuted inflation that should fall in the next 12-24 months, if that occurs, rates at the current level are too high and will not sustain for 5-10 years, bonds will appreciate when rates fallthe 2Y has priced MORE than the planned hikes announced. And we’re north of 4% on a terminal rate, there hasnt been a fundamental shift in habits to drive inflation above 4% for a sustained (3-5 year period), this was manufacuted inflation that should fall in the next 12-24 months, if that occurs, rates at the current level are too high and will not sustain for 5-10 years, bonds will appreciate when rates fall
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
The real issue is that no one owns this stuff anymore and we’re still above 3600. Always sounds great in theory for everyone to sell ‘the top’ and then proceed to watch it collapse but when institutions are running out of shares to sell, it tends to stop selling, naked shorting in the hole only gets you so far, USUALLY, for prices to fall, someone needs to take some pain, there has been no pain at the institutional level aside from massive losses on hedges, same story as ‘07 if im objective about it
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
Good number, deserves a backtest, but they know once they let off it will be tough to control
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
I feel strongly that the dollar is topping, and the longer DXy stays up here (assuming we then fall), the longer equities will rally
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 7:05PM ET
If you think im confident, ha
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 6:05PM ET
Most likely lands between 3500 and 3580 before a relief rally, timing unclear with Powell coming premarket, might be one of this ES lows that isnt seen in cash, because, thats been the game this year, no cash entry at swings 9/10 times
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 5:05PM ET
Not often to see net buying on close followed by lower but its a trappy area, tough to call on equities, probably just a lot of ppl taking profit on USD longs
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 4:05PM ET
I dont see inflation averaging 5% for the next 24 months, but bond market doesnt agree with me
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 4:05PM ET
They want it low for imbalance, not unusual
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 4:05PM ET
Just watch the volume on the MOC today, it will be a laughably large
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 3:05PM ET
If you trust the FED entirely, youd still hold 100% USD allocation at $114, if you dont entirely trust the FED, you better be looking for something with a yield that can keep up with inflation….
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 3:05PM ET
Structure on equities is still terrible but not as terrible as bagholding USD at the $114 major
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 2:05PM ET
Im pretty sure everyone would just like to see a move in either direction that justifies the sky high premium. TA shows VIX going higher, but that kind of relies on dxy rejecting. If everyone can sit in USD and see appreciation than there should not be a reason hedge with 20-30% equity allocation, if DXY starts turning and equities sell as well then the VIX at these nosebleed levels will start to pay, too trappy for me, cheers
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 2:05PM ET
I definitely do not see how this movement justifies 30 VIX when equity allocations are at all time lows…just a bunch or MMs imo
S&P 500 Futures Sep 26, 2022 2:05PM ET
Seems trappy, cant do much, bonds seem safe at this yield if the FED is committed