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Peter ONeill

Joined: 21/06/20


Comments by Peter ONeill
Ark's Cathie Wood Says She Was Wrong on Inflation Jun 28, 2022 11:32AM ET
Only a ***thought keeping interest rates at 0% for over two years while pumping an extra $5 Trillion in Stimulus and $8 Trillion in Fed printing presses wouldn't result in mass inflation. A 1st year economics student could tell you massive printing presses and money supply flooding the market = prolonged inflation..... So one extra reason not to follow Cathie Woods judgment (with her Arkk fund now back to where it was in 2018)
Recession Is Coming: Should You Be Concerned? Jun 24, 2022 3:42PM ET
Are these all the same 'smartest' economists who constantly get it wrong and every year have to readjust their previous estimates - including for over 2 years about Inflation and how long it would last??? ;). As the saying goes - asking 1,000 economists a question and they will probably come back with 1,000 different answers.
S&P 500 May Fall Another 15% Jun 24, 2022 12:01PM ET
Same as most articles on this site - everyone either seems to be a 100% Bear or 100% Bull with few in between or grey areas.
S&P 500 May Fall Another 15% Jun 24, 2022 11:59AM ET
 I strongly believe Russia will stop once they take over the Donbas region and then try to hold onto it (so Putin can try to convince Russians that this was his plan the whole time - to only protect the Russian-speaking regions and they have accomplished what they set out to do). Ukraine won't accept this so both sides will just get dug in and will probably be at a long drawn-out stalemate for years/war of attrition. In a few year's time Russia will probably pull out after suffering too much economic damage from sanctions - but only after getting concessions to save face e.g. Donbas becomes a federalist state within Ukraine with its own government) I strongly believe Russia will stop once they take over the Donbas region and then try to hold onto it (so Putin can try to convince Russians that this was his plan the whole time - to only protect the Russian-speaking regions and they have accomplished what they set out to do). Ukraine won't accept this so both sides will just get dug in and will probably be at a long drawn-out stalemate for years/war of attrition. In a few year's time Russia will probably pull out after suffering too much economic damage from sanctions - but only after getting concessions to save face e.g. Donbas becomes a federalist state within Ukraine with its own government)
S&P 500 May Fall Another 15% Jun 24, 2022 11:52AM ET
Very unlikely????? QE has come to an end after almost 2 and a half years of endless stimulus cheques / cheap debt and QT has ONLY JUST STARTED. Fed only started selling off its $8 Trillion balance sheet what - last month? Inflation is running at 40-year highs across the globe and unemployment is also at 50-year lows. Then national debts for most countries are at 80-year highs (not at this level since WW2 ended).  Even if the Ukraine war ended tomorrow - sanctions will be around for years adding extra pressure on energy prices/food prices etc. The question isn't will we have a recession in the next 12-18 months - it's how deep and long will it last.
S&P 500 May Fall Another 15% Jun 24, 2022 11:45AM ET
More funds and portfolios buying in at cheaper rates to reduce their break even points versus what they bought in 2021. VERY VERY few analysts, economists or business leaders see this as being the bottom of the market. Most see it as the first stage in what could be a 12-18 month downward trajectory.
Are Tesla Shares Still A Buy-The-Dip Play After 40% Plunge This Year? Jun 21, 2022 4:04PM ET
'Some Analysts' - yes and of 30 Analysts on sites like Tipranks -  half have a hold or sell recommendation. Is Tesla worth $740 Billion in an ET market where its max profits will be restrained by production and semiconductor restraints?? No...Then add in a possible recession where people will pull back on luxury items. Do I like Tesla long-term? Yes...but id rather wait until returns to ~$388 support levels (where can see it within the next 12 months - it certainly won't hit $1200+ again in the short or medium term).
Risk Of U.S. Recession Is Now 50-50 Jun 16, 2022 6:02PM ET
Id personally say it's more about what level will any recession be at, rather than if any recession will emerge. Think most agree there will be a recession within the next 12-18 months. The only real question is will it be a deep hard hitting prolonged recession or more of a temporary dip that lasts for a few months while the economy repositions and slows down to more sustainable levels.
Risk Of U.S. Recession Is Now 50-50 Jun 16, 2022 5:57PM ET
Yes but high inflation also drags down consumer spending/confidence + eventually company profits. It also hurts the poorest the hardest as they struggle to pay for food/rent. You will NEVER find a developed economy performing while under extremely high inflation pressures. The fact is the economy has overheated / money supply was overdone + Ukraine & Covid supply chain issues have only made the situation worse. There is no way the economy can keep on going the way it is with unemployment at 3.5% and 8.6% inflation - not with oil also at $120+ a barrel and potentially going higher as EU sanctions kick in.
Fed Raises Rates by 0.75% as Rampant Inflation Forces Biggest Hike Since 1994 Jun 15, 2022 2:21PM ET
The problem with ECB is it has to make decisions for 19 different economies and systems, not just 1. So while some member states might be performing others could be already in recession. Plus no matter what ECB does - inflation will still be high unless the global economy slows down or supply chain issues resolved.
Amazon Stock Remains Poised For Long-Term Gains Despite Adverse Macro Environment Jun 11, 2022 5:32AM ET
I think Amazon will be hurting for the next 12+ months with inflation / potential recession / Rivian investment impact. But 1)  It has invested billions over the past 2 years expanding its global logistic network and now has a network no other company can even dream of - which will pay huge dividends in the long term as it builds out and extend product offerings. 2) It is more or less a conglomerate with revenue streams from cloud, e-commerce, media, food retail, device sales, etc - so if a recession does emerge it is one of the better-placed companies to emerge from it in a healthy position as a loss in one area is generally replaced by pick up in another. I do own Amazon shares but will probably hold another 12 or so months before buying more as a long-term investment - as I can see more pain on the horizon for the overall market where no stock will be safe from being dragged down.
Wall St drops as investor jitters climb before CPI data Friday Jun 09, 2022 7:57PM ET
BS. Ukraine is only one aspect of the inflation problem. The $5+ trillion in excess liquidity the Fed pumped into the market while keeping interest rates at 0% for over 2 years sure didn't help + continued Covid lockdowns in China. Inflation is also rising as the labor market is far too tight with unemployment at ~3.5%. Plus, even when the war ends it doesn't mean the sanctions will end anytime soon or grain can be replanted after the harvesting season. The fact is - you can expect high inflation for at least another 12-18 months and a lot of global economies will go into recession under such strain/supply chain shocks.
3 Stocks To Watch In The Coming Week: Tesla, Apple, DocuSign Jun 05, 2022 10:36AM ET
Shanghai covid closures, a possible global recession on the horizon, Ford / GM/Volkwagon all catching up on EV tech, semiconductor shortages due to Russian war and Musk concentrating a lot of Tesla resources into Robotics. Can see Tesla shares fall back to $400 support levels and staying there during any possible recession in short/medium term before climbing again in the long term. Wouldnt value it at €750 Billion anyway.
Dogecoin: A Top-Tier Crypto That Holds Possible Attractive Percentage Reward May 24, 2022 5:31PM ET
Dogecoin - a currency which was created as a JOKE and named as such (not even messing - Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer created it to show how stupid Cryptocurrency speculation was getting that people would buy anything). Seems like all this author ever does is pump cryptocurrency so not surprised...
S&P 500 Futures: How Low Can They Go Before A Sustained Bottom Is In? Apr 26, 2022 5:23PM ET
Is this before or after the Nasdaq 100 climbs by almost 50% over the next 7 months based on your earlier projection that it should hit 18,000 by the end of the year???? haha way things are going its more likely the Nasdaq 100 will be 10,000 - 12,000 by year end
1 Stock To Buy, 1 To Dump When Markets Open: Tesla, PayPal Apr 24, 2022 7:18PM ET
 PayPal's main business isn't C2C transactions - it's B2C - people buying goods from online stores where PP gets a transaction fee. Plus they will grow by building up market share in developing / large population countries such as India / China and South America (not in the USA/EU where markets are saturated). Tesla is a good long-term option but they also have to hit EVERY target they have set between now and 2026 to justify their current 217953982+ Trillion Market Cap. Ford / VW / GM are all rapidly catching up on tech while Apple and Amazon are also looking at getting into the EV market (Amazon already invested in Rivian). Would I buy Tesla shares? Yes...but not at this level (personally I can see it fall to around 0 a share if a recession emerges or the China trade war escalates again). PayPal's main business isn't C2C transactions - it's B2C - people buying goods from online stores where PP gets a transaction fee. Plus they will grow by building up market share in developing / large population countries such as India / China and South America (not in the USA/EU where markets are saturated). Tesla is a good long-term option but they also have to hit EVERY target they have set between now and 2026 to justify their current $1+ Trillion Market Cap. Ford / VW / GM are all rapidly catching up on tech while Apple and Amazon are also looking at getting into the EV market (Amazon already invested in Rivian). Would I buy Tesla shares? Yes...but not at this level (personally I can see it fall to around $600 a share if a recession emerges or the China trade war escalates again).
1 Stock To Buy, 1 To Dump When Markets Open: Tesla, PayPal Apr 24, 2022 7:00PM ET
They warned last quarter it would be Q3 or Q4 before eBay losses are ironed out of revenue streams and replaced by new revenue streams from partnerships with Amazon etc. So can see the next quarterly results being impacted and share price fluctuating between $80 - $120 for a while. Add in consumer confidence falling due to inflation and more consumers spending money offline as covid subsides..... But if the PayPal share price drops below $75, id start dipping in as a long-term investment / good value option.
1 Stock To Buy, 1 To Dump When Markets Open: Tesla, PayPal Apr 24, 2022 6:46PM ET
 Well active users have gone from 275 million to 425 million in the past 24 months ...so a lot!! Plus how many online shops do you know who accept crypto for payment??? Maybe 1% of online stores accept bitcoin ...or Tesla with their Dogecoin due to Musk's manipulation. Think PayPal is at peak penetration levels in USA/ EU however now - so the main growth in users will have to come from India / South America or if they can grow a Chinese base. Well active users have gone from 275 million to 425 million in the past 24 months ...so a lot!! Plus how many online shops do you know who accept crypto for payment??? Maybe 1% of online stores accept bitcoin ...or Tesla with their Dogecoin due to Musk's manipulation. Think PayPal is at peak penetration levels in USA/ EU however now - so the main growth in users will have to come from India / South America or if they can grow a Chinese base.
1 Stock To Buy, 1 To Dump When Markets Open: Tesla, PayPal Apr 24, 2022 6:37PM ET
Yes, but consumer confidence is going to be burnt the longer inflation stays above 5%+ and potential recession is on the cards within the next 18 months. To me, anything around $75 is good value for PayPal as was at this level in 2018 and has doubled its active account users to 400+ million since then & started to expand rapidly in India and South America. Add in their new link up with Amazon this year and Venmo growth.....So to me, ill dip into it if/when hits the $70-$80 range as a long-term buy.
1 Stock To Buy, 1 To Dump When Markets Open: Tesla, PayPal Apr 24, 2022 3:33PM ET
With a market cap of $110 Billion and you'd presume a premium demanded of say 25% - very few if any companies could afford $130 Billion+ ....if anything say more likely is a merger with say Block or Stripe etc. Or PP might go back to look at acquisitions such as the rumored one of Pinterest.
Stock Market Today: Dow Falls on Tech Tantrum as Powell Tees Up Larger May Hike Apr 21, 2022 5:56PM ET
If anything Powell has done everything in his power to keep the stock market inflated since 2020. Only now is he getting more hawkish after 12 months of inflation denial (probably has sold all of his own personal stock positions by now)
Stock Market Today: Dow Falls on Tech Tantrum as Powell Tees Up Larger May Hike Apr 21, 2022 5:54PM ET
Do you really think inflation at 8.5% will come down after 2 more interest rates leaving rates at what 1.25% - 1.5%???? Markets are now anticipating to end the year with Fed rates closer to 2.75% (so 6 more hikes - one at every remaining Fed meeting - including a few 0.5% hikes frontloaded). Some of the more hawkish Fed members actually indicated the fed rate needs to be over 3.25% by the end of the year to get inflation back under control if it stays stubbornly over 5%. If you want inflation at the targetted 2% level - with Ukraine and China lockdowns impacting inflation even further -  you will also need a very aggressive sell-off in the Fed Balance Sheet over the next 12 months to stop inflation from getting entrenched at 5%+
1 Stock To Buy, 1 To Dump When Markets Open: Alibaba, Citigroup Apr 03, 2022 7:38PM ET
Yes but all agree the economy cannot stay at this level with unemployment at <3.6% and inflation at >8%+ (potentially hitting 10%+, once the war's impact on energy/food and supply chains are factored in over the coming months). The Fed is trying to navigate a soft landing in very choppy and unpredictable waters - with a lot of factors outside of its control. It has never managed a soft landing before when inflation/oil has gotten so high and unemployment so low (including in 1972-1974, 1990, 2000 and 2007).  So much Fed liquidity/debt is still floating around that I cant see a major recession in the next 12 months. But can certainly see clouds on the horizon before the end of 2023 when you factor in huge global debt hangovers, taxation increases, and global inflation impacting regional stability (already riots and political unrest in Pakistan, Brazil, Sri Lanka etc over food/energy inflation).
1 Stock To Buy, 1 To Dump When Markets Open: Alibaba, Citigroup Apr 03, 2022 7:08PM ET
 Total exposure to Russian assets of .8 Billion versus total assets under custody of .6 TRILLION (including loans and securities to Russian customers). Hardly a sizeable exposure. C has already said it won't fire sell assets immediately and it would be a gradual unwind. You presume, they hope the war in Ukraine will be over before forced to sell any highly profitable assets. Most analysts have an asset write-down of between 0 million to 204787124.5 Billion (depending on sell-off speed) versus a current analyst's projected net profit of Billion in 2022. So might be a short-term 2% - 4% hit on the share price.....hardly a crash.... Total exposure to Russian assets of $9.8 Billion versus total assets under custody of $23.6 TRILLION (including loans and securities to Russian customers). Hardly a sizeable exposure. C has already said it won't fire sell assets immediately and it would be a gradual unwind. You presume, they hope the war in Ukraine will be over before forced to sell any highly profitable assets. Most analysts have an asset write-down of between $300 million to $1.5 Billion (depending on sell-off speed) versus a current analyst's projected net profit of $25 Billion in 2022. So might be a short-term 2% - 4% hit on the share price.....hardly a crash....
Slovak minister says paying in roubles could be an option as country needs gas Apr 03, 2022 5:18PM ET
The EU has the wealth to outbid poorer countries for energy supplies from NA and the Middle East (might be a short-term logistics shortfall until oil tankers are diverted - but say this will be overcome before any oil/gas is really needed in the winter months). Will mean a bidding war, higher prices and food shortages in poorer countries in Africa / Asia however. But UAE/Saudi /NA winning European energy market share now means a Russian recession for the next 10+ years as it had become so reliant on European energy money to fuel its whole economy (Yes parts of Europe are reliant on Russian Energy - but likewise Russia is very much reliant on European energy exports to fuel its whole economic system). Russia is currently using all resources it has left just to prop up the Rouble and domestic share prices.